English Chess Forum

NickFaulks wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:12 am

We don't even need that input, because proportion without antibodies is measured ( or at least modelled ) directly.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... in-england

Unless R > 10, which I have not seen suggested, we're good to go.

edited to add link.

I had not seen that data before. I think the R for the Delta variant is estimated to be 7. So, I would agree with you there.

It not quite as simple as that because this survey only looks at adults, so depending what proportion of children have antibodies with a variant like Delta with an R of 7 the number of cases could still have an upward trajectory, but probably only for a 'limited' period.

R changes with how the population being infected behaves of course, so if its 7 right now you could relatively easily tip over.

Going back to 'normal' would, I guess, there's decent evidence building that the football was enough by itself.

Hence why lifting the regulations was hedged round so much. Interesting to see various surveys suggesting that the population behaviour hasn't meaningfully changed since.

Any thoughts on this?

Full lockdowns remain highly unlikely.

John Upham wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:13 am

Any thoughts on this?

Well, the extant Plan B is only expected to limit the doubling period to ~5-6 days.

That will help of course, but exponential is still exponential. Mostly it pushes the decision point from ~Xmas over to somewhere in January/Feb. If it is somewhere near as bad/head as delta then I imagine we'll need something 'more'. What that might be I don't know.

I expect 13 January. That will be my next game... aka Sod's Law.

Matt Mackenzie wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 09, 2021 2:00 pm

Full lockdowns remain highly unlikely.

Everything will depend on how big a mess the PM is in and whether he thinks a big lockdown announcement might save his skin for a bit longer. Impossible to predict.

But after everything that has happened, that would just make him more toxic than ever surely.

(plus there are the numerous "vaccines = freedom" statements he made in the past year)

Conspiracy theorists may be interested to know that an anagram of Delta Omicron is Media Control.

Dragoljub Sudar wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:00 pm

Conspiracy theorists may be interested to know that an anagram of Delta Omicron is Media Control.

And an anagram of Omicron is moronic.

The UK Health Security Agency has today published a technical briefing which has a projection - based on new Omicron cases doubling every 2.5 days - which appears to show new cases in the UK reaching a million a day by Christmas. (See figure 11 on page 28.)

Angus French wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:14 pm

The UK Health Security Agency has today published a technical briefing which has a projection - based on new Omicron cases doubling every 2.5 days - which appears to show new cases in the UK reaching a million a day by Christmas. (See figure 11 on page 28.)

That obviously runs seriously foul of Joseph Conlon's point about unlimited extrapolations, demonstrating that the authors of these things are statistically illiterate. It's lucky they didn't extend their graph for another fortnight - by then we would all be getting Omicron twice a day!

Nonetheless, if there is going to be only one variant that hasn't disappeared from the UK, as Nicola Sturgeon claims, and it will be one which you only even know you've got by being tested, that sounds like a good outcome to me.

Sure, it's not a modelled projection and doesn't take account of behavioural and population-size constraints but I think it suggests the situation could be quite serious.

Angus French wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 10, 2021 8:04 pm

Sure, it's not a modelled projection and doesn't take account of behavioural and population-size constraints

It is complete and utter garbage, and the fact that this chart has even been allowed to surface in the public domain tells us all we need to know about our rulers.