The Ashes 2013

[Phil Neatherway]

I guess the tactic in England is to produce more wickets like Trent Bridge and Lord's, i.e. relatively slow. In Australia, I think the wickets will be much more pacy, as the Aussies have some very decent fast bowlers.

[MartinCarpenter]

I don't think we really prepare wickets to cater for the opposition as such - I can't really remember a genuinely fast wicket in England for a bit now even when it would have suited us. What might help balance things out attack wise is all the rain due to be around for the next two weeks.

[Paul McKeown]

Think 10-0 rather unlikely.

Actually, even 8-0 sees Australia fall below the West Indies, whilst 7-0 or 9-1 sees the two teams level.

Moreover, if England were to win the English leg of the 10 matches merely by 3-0 or 4-1, then 4-0 in the Australian leg would in both cases also see Australia fall below the West Indies. So even a 7-0 or 8-1 aggregate could see Australia fall below the West Indies, whilst 7-1 could see them level.

Indeed, if the following three tests were rained off, leaving England to win the English leg 2-0, then 4-0 in the Australian leg - 6-0 overall - would also see Australia and the West Indies level.

4-1 in both legs would see Australia and the West Indies level.

[Alex Holowczak]

I decided to bung some scenarios into my Elo cricket thing.

This is where we are now. Zimbabwe are still unrated. They've won a Test now though, so when they get to 10 matches, they'll appear on here.

Code: Select all

k = 40

   Country         Rating
 1 South Africa    2467 
 2 England         2372 
 3 India           2352 
 4 Australia       2302 
 5 Pakistan        2277 
 6 Sri Lanka       2226 
 7 West Indies     2193 
 8 New Zealand     2131 
 9 Bangladesh      1891 

If we win 10-0, this happens (assuming no other matches):

Code: Select all

k = 40

   Country         Rating
 1 South Africa    2467 
 2 England         2466 
 3 India           2352 
 4 Pakistan        2277 
 5 Sri Lanka       2226 
 6 Australia       2208 
 7 West Indies     2193 
 8 New Zealand     2131 
 9 Bangladesh      1891 

Indeed, for k values lower than 40, but higher than 5, England would be number 1 in the world. Amusingly, for k = 5, Australia would still be number 1!

[Paul McKeown]

k = 5 is absurd.

[Alex Holowczak]

k = 5 is absurd.

Indeed, which is why I chose a different number for the main ratings. By default, it outputs ratings for k = 5n, where 0 < n < 11.

[Paul McKeown]

If our electoral system had a k factor of 5, Disraeli would still be Prime Minister.

[Sean Hewitt]

If our electoral system had a k factor of 5, Disraeli would still be Prime Minister.

[Phil Neatherway]

I like this quote of Disraeli's:-

In response to a man who asked him "What is the difference between a misfortune and a calamity?", Disraeli replied, "If Gladstone fell into the Thames, that would be a misfortune; and if anybody pulled him out, that, I suppose, would be a calamity."

[Greg Breed]

This sums up what i think in general about such things...
“The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.”
― Oscar Wilde

[Greg Breed]

...and completely non-Ashes related - sorry, but a few more gems:

• Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.
  C. Northcote Parkinson, "Parkinson's Law", The Economist, 19 November 1955.
• The time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum involved.
  C. Northcote Parkinson, Parkinson's Law: and Other Studies in Administration (1957), p. 24. (popularly known as Parkinson's Law of Triviality)
• In a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.
  Laurence J. Peter, The Peter Principle (1968), ch. 1
• Bureaucracy defends the status quo long past the time when the quo has lost its status.
  Laurence J. Peter, Peter's Quotations: Ideas for Our Time (1977), p. 83

[Mick Norris]

Back to the cricket, England look like they are going to choose Taylor
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/23437195

Aussies may decide Warner is back to form
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/c ... 30760.html

[Phil Neatherway]

Wasn't there some talk about certain England players expressing their surprise when Taylor was called up last year?

[MartinCarpenter]

Maybe they were surprise when we changed the team (He came in when Bopara withdrew it seems.).

He's been a very obvious candidate for these spots for a while. Lots of county runs, lots of runs for the lions etc. Thank goodness, we don't do anything by accident anymore. We seemed to passed that habit on to the Australian selectors instead!
(Some of the things they're doing really do seem to be astonishingly random.).

[Alex Holowczak]

(Some of the things they're doing really do seem to be astonishingly random.).

Darren Lehmann was having a knock in the nets ahead of their game against Sussex...