Ukraine

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Ukraine

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:32 pm

Starting this as a new topic, though previous discussion has been in the 'Lenin's Doom' thread.

I was reading this article:

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-bl ... ic-war/441

The author claims that we are "living through the last days of globalisation and multilateral order" and that the likely outcome to the current crisis over Ukraine is various forms of economic warfare. It is difficult to know what is going on now (other than things continuing to spiral out of control), but is that one of the possible outcomes?

John McKenna
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Re: Ukraine

Post by John McKenna » Sun Mar 02, 2014 2:11 pm

Chris, you must remember - once bitten twice shy.

You are asking for a triple whammy…

David Robertson>Yes and no, not maybe.<
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Re: Ukraine

Post by David Robertson » Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:25 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:The author claims that we are "living through the last days of globalisation and multilateral order"
Possibly. But we should not ignore the likely impact on Group H in the World Cup

John McKenna
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Re: Ukraine

Post by John McKenna » Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:03 pm

We will soon forget the World Cup unless we first have a World War instead.
The BBC's John Simpson recently speculated about the chances of 3rd. But what does he know.
These days every media pundit is also an expert, of course.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:39 pm

John McKenna wrote:Chris, you must remember - once bitten twice shy.

You are asking for a triple whammy…

David Robertson>Yes and no, not maybe.<
Possibly, but one way for people to learn more about history and current events than they know now (and some here will know more than others about the history) is not just to read about it, but to discuss and debate such matters with others... (anyway, I see discussion has continued in the other thread, at least anyone looking for such discussion now knows where to find it - admittedly, a chess forum is not the obvious place either).

John McKenna
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Re: Ukraine

Post by John McKenna » Sun Mar 02, 2014 7:09 pm

Most of what you say does make sense, Chris, but I think a chess forum - full of strategists and tacticians - is a good place to discuss what could be done in this situation. Therefore I will try to post mainly tactically here in your 'Ukraine' and more strategically in David R's "Lenin's Doom". But, only when better prepared.
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:34 pm

Interesting article here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26440560

Great picture of Merkel and Putin!

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Re: Ukraine

Post by John McKenna » Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:19 am

The article linked to above says that Germany takes "about a quarter of Russia's natural gas exports".
The Russians have announced a gas price rise for the Ukraine.
The EU's tactic is to pay the Ukrainian's oustanding gas bill - about $2bn.
The money will go straight into Putin's state pockets.
The price of gas on the markets has also risen.
The energy companies will probanly suceed in passing it on to consumers.
The US President has been urged to rescind a law that prohibits export of shale oil & gas.
The pundits say he should sell some to Europe and Ukraine, or even on the open market - like North Sea oil & gas.
The tactics of chequebook diplomacy?
To find a for(u)m that accommodates the mess, that is the task of the artist now. (Samuel Beckett)

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Chris Rice » Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:26 am

From the Susan Polgar site today is a further article where Kasparov is raging against Putin likening him to Hitler. I've got some sympathy for this as there are definitely similarities between Putin's flimsy pretext of invading the Crimea and Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland...

Chess grand master Garry Kasparov: If Obama was president in 1985, 'I would still be living in the Soviet Union.'

Steve Larson


* Kasparov declared that previous American presidents had stood up to a stronger Russia.

* Warned that the West wants to play chess with Russian President Vladimir Putin but he "does not have to play by the rules."

Russian chess grand master and political activist Garry Kasparov had some harsh words Tuesday for President Obama’s handling of the crisis in Ukraine.

“If President Obama was the president in 1985, I would still be living in the Soviet Union,” Kasparov said during his Tate Lecture at Southern Methodist University.

The grand master asked the audience “[w]ho is going to believe the president of the United States when he already broke his promise to Syria?” and declared that previous American presidents such as Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan had stood up to a then-stronger Russia.

Within 20 minutes of starting his lecture, Kasparov also compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler.

“Each time you show weakness, dictators grow stronger. And each time you fail to confront them, the price goes up,” Kasparov said.

Kasparov expressed his indignation at the West’s reluctance to intervene in Ukraine, warning that if the situation in Ukraine is not diffused, Putin could create a great deal of bloodshed for Russia’s neighbors.

“We are on to something that is not within our ability to truly predict, but I don’t see Russia in five to 10 years survive within its current geographical borders,” he said.

Kasparov, a native of Azerbaijan, earned his claim to fame by becoming a World Chess Champion in 1985.

Source: http://www.campusreform.org

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Peter D Williams
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Peter D Williams » Thu Mar 06, 2014 4:10 pm

Afternoon All

Intersting Questions on Ukraine the West chooses not to answer in RT News http://rt.com/news/ukraine-west-questio ... wered-994/

Also Kiev snipers hired by Maidan leaders - leaked EU's Ashton phone tape http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/


Spaghetti Bolognese tonight :D
when you are successful many losers bark at you.

Mick Norris
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:29 pm

Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Paul McKeown » Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:31 pm

Peter D Williams wrote:Intersting Questions on Ukraine the West chooses not to answer in RT News http://rt.com/news/ukraine-west-questio ... wered-994/

Also Kiev snipers hired by Maidan leaders - leaked EU's Ashton phone tape http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/
This is an example of what David Robertson has elsewhere labelled, "uncritical Googling".

It would be surprising if an Estonian Foreign Minister did believe that the snipers at the Maidan were Ukrainian provocateurs; the default Estonian view would be that dark elements in the Kremlin would be behind any such provocation.

Urmas Paet stated nowhere that the snipers were actually from Maidan. What bothered him was that the rumours weren't being properly investigated, given the potential that such rumours have for mischievous use at the hands of propagandists.

One could read this for instance for a typical Estonian understanding. The Guardian gives a decent report on the matter in the English language (don't read the comments BTL if Western ultra-left useful idiocy makes steam blow out of your ears, or the output of a small office in St. Petersburg, either).

Basically the Estonians (and the Latvians) understand the message very clearly: you too have a very large Russian minority, not all of whom are well integrated into your society.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alex Holowczak » Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:03 pm

Originally, to cut a long story short, Western media reported that the Russians had invaded Crimea. It was reported that Russia defended this action on the grounds that they were defending Russian citizens in Crimea, who were allegedly in danger after Yanukovych fled. I didn't understand this logic. Trying to draw a parallel, I thought, what if the Belgians elected a Walloon as President, and after rioting on the streets to oust him, the Dutch invaded to protect the Flemish. Why would a country do that?

Then the story changed. The troops in Crimea are Russian, but who are they? Are they people sent into Crimea from Moscow by Putin? Are they ethnic Russians living in Crimea; a sort of popular English Defence League type of organisation with a very pro-Russian stance? Are the Russian troops stationed in Crimea involved at all?

Western media is painting the picture of a Russian invasion. RT in particular paints a very different picture.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Paul McKeown » Sat Mar 08, 2014 11:50 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Forgive me, but that's naive. And naively to believe it is exactly what was hoped of you, as you will shrug you shoulders and think it isn't a problem that should bother you.

Yes, the Crimea has a Russian majority. Not just Russian speaking, as in the major cities of Ukraine, which, however, given all polling indications since independence, have felt little empathy with the Russian Federation, but with a unitary Ukraine. The Crimea is different; it has a Russian speaking majority (to a large degree planted since the Second World War with the deportation of the Tatars), who also identify with the current Russian state. It is presently an autonomous republic within the Ukraine. There was no security threat to Russian speakers nor to Russian citizens in the Crimea. Nevertheless this was the pretext that used to justify an armed Russian state occupation of the Crimea, by Russian special forces bearing no identifiable uniform, in contravention of international codes for the conduct of war. This is to be followed by a plebiscite on Crimea seceding from the Ukraine and attaching itself to the Russian Federation. A plebiscite in which the world has already been informed that voting cards will be handed out in Sevastopol, even though Sevastopol is not open to Ukrainian citizens, only to Russian citizens in the pay of the Russian military. A plebiscite in which independent observers appear unlikely to be welcome, given the reception that the OSCE has currently received. A plebiscite in direct contravention of the constitution of the Ukraine, and in violation of its national sovereignty. It is always possible that the Crimea might have chosen to follow this course unprompted, which might have brought it into conflict with the Ukrainian authorities. That however is not what has happened. Meanwhile massive military manoeuvres close to the Ukrainian eastern border with barely veiled threats against the eastern and southern Ukrainian oblasts.

Provocation, pretext, armed intervention, manoeuvres on the frontier, plebiscite, annexation. Straight from the Fascist playbook, a playbook in which Putin has written several chapters over the past two decades.

Crimean secession will leave the Tatars in an invidious position. That's another story, and if you don't care about this Anschluß, then you won't be minded to worry about the fate of the Tatars either. The Russian Federation under Putin has never shirked from crushing rebellions by its Muslim citizens with the full might of its armed forces. So be it, I suppose.

Next step, given time and opportunity, dismemberment of the Ukrainian state from Kharkiv to Odessa, perhaps, leaving a rump to the west of the Dneiper. Then on to Transnistria with fraternal greetings.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:15 am

Paul McKeown wrote: Next step, given time and opportunity, dismemberment of the Ukrainian state from Kharkiv to Odessa, perhaps, leaving a rump to the west of the Dneiper. Then on to Transnistria with fraternal greetings.
In recent years, states have spilt into two or more successors, The Czech Republic and Slovakia being European examples. For that matter Yugoslavia created 6 or perhaps 7 new countries and the demise of the Soviet Union, how many 13 perhaps? I'm trying to think of examples where "yours" is "ours". The Falklands is an example and perhaps the border regions of Georgia more recently.

In 1914, Belgium had a guarantee of its borders dating back to around 1830, of which both the UK and Prussia were signatories. In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed without removing its Nuclear toys from Ukraine territory. As a condition of giving back the missiles to Russia, Ukraine got a territorial guarantee.

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