2015 UK General Election

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David Robertson
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by David Robertson » Sun May 17, 2015 10:46 pm

Ah, nicely-found. Niall Ferguson's Huffington Post piece is a far more thorough sledging of Paul Krugman than the FT item. They really do not like each other. (Sorry about the paywall. I thought the FT allowed a limited open access. Clearly not)

Matthew Turner
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Matthew Turner » Mon May 18, 2015 9:45 am

Rachel Reeves has endorsed Andy Burnham which might well secure her the Shadow Chancellor's job should Burnham prevail. Angela Eagle is running for Deputy Leader but even at this stage Tom Watson appears to be in an unassailable lead.

David Robertson
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by David Robertson » Mon May 18, 2015 12:59 pm

I suspect this pre-election Guardian piece by Paul Krugman is what caused Niall Ferguson's 'We Wot Won It' rant

MartinCarpenter
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon May 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Doesn't seem that worthy of hate. Serious over analysis in places here of course - people simply get reluctant to vote for parties when they've been in charge at the time some major economic disaster hits. See also black Wednesday etc.

Being objective, I know its traditional and all, but it does seem gently remarkable to analyse the election result in terms of Labour vs Conservative. That was a tiny swing to Labour and neither party doing very well by historical standards.

Lib Dems/SNP very much more dramatic of course but seemingly much less interesting.

Also whether there really was a chunk of people switch from the Lib Dems to UKIP anywhere. Looks inevitable really but surely hopelessly inconsistent?

Mick Norris
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Mick Norris » Mon May 18, 2015 3:08 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Also whether there really was a chunk of people switch from the Lib Dems to UKIP anywhere. Looks inevitable really but surely hopelessly inconsistent?
Maybe UKIP picked up votes from Conservative and Labour, whereas the Lib Dem votes switched to Conservative and Labour
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon May 18, 2015 3:37 pm

Maybe :) The vote share shift was ~ +10 UKIP, +3 SNP/Green, +1 Lab/Con, -15 LibDem, -2 BNP.

BNP all gone to UKIP you imagine, but that does still leave an awful lot of voters to move around to balance things properly without a fair amount switching directly. Maybe in safe Labour seats where the LD's have often been second.

Mick Norris
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Mick Norris » Mon May 18, 2015 4:11 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Maybe :) The vote share shift was ~ +10 UKIP, +3 SNP/Green, +1 Lab/Con, -15 LibDem, -2 BNP
Are you talking UK wide? I think you would need to separate out England, and I guess you would need to separate out the regions too e.g. Lib Dem to Conservative in the South West, Labour to UKIP in the North, Lib Dem & Labour to SNP in Scotland

i assume you have seen this:
split like 4NCL Div 3 :lol:
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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon May 18, 2015 6:03 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:Rachel Reeves has endorsed Andy Burnham which might well secure her the Shadow Chancellor's job should Burnham prevail. Angela Eagle is running for Deputy Leader but even at this stage Tom Watson appears to be in an unassailable lead.
What is the latter claim based on? I will be backing Stella Creasy for that post and so will others I know :)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

MartinCarpenter
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon May 18, 2015 7:39 pm

Never mind joining an independent Scotland, lets go further back and all apply to join Denmark ;) They do seem to know how to run a country rather well.

Clive Blackburn

Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Clive Blackburn » Mon May 18, 2015 8:56 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Never mind joining an independent Scotland, lets go further back and all apply to join Denmark ;) They do seem to know how to run a country rather well.
....and they probably have the best lager in the world :D

Arshad Ali
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Arshad Ali » Wed May 20, 2015 1:20 pm

Interesting essay by Immanuel Wallerstein:

http://iwallerstein.com/post-britain-does-it-matter/

David Robertson
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by David Robertson » Wed May 20, 2015 3:19 pm

Arshad Ali wrote:Interesting essay by Immanuel Wallerstein:
http://iwallerstein.com/post-britain-does-it-matter/
Good grief! Wallerstein is still going. He must be 85 years old, at least. I read and taught his 'World System' over forty years back. Path-breaking then; old hat now, of course.

Anyhow, he hasn't taken into account in this piece that David Cameron has promised, yes promised, to make Britain 'great' again.

Arshad Ali
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Arshad Ali » Wed May 20, 2015 4:51 pm

David Robertson wrote:Anyhow, he hasn't taken into account in this piece that David Cameron has promised, yes promised, to make Britain 'great' again.
Do they still sing "Rule, Britannia" at the end of the annual Tory party conference?

Yes, Wallerstein is alive and kicking and we're all waiting for the fifth volume of "The Modern World System."

Brian Towers
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Brian Towers » Wed May 20, 2015 5:25 pm

David Robertson wrote:Good grief! Wallerstein is still going. He must be 85 years old, at least. I read and taught his 'World System' over forty years back. Path-breaking then; old hat now, of course.
Very nicely put.
Wallerstein is clearly barking. Cameron giving the Scots the minimum that he thinks he can get away with would be stupid and I don't think he is. It would merely inflame the situation and bring forward the date of the next referendum. Far more sensible to give them the maximum that he thinks he can get away with. That way he defuses the situation, does the right thing by the Scottish electorate and maybe even gets the new ally that was hinted at in the leaks from the French ambassador's report ;-)

Similarly the sensible approach for Germany and the European federalists would be to move quickly to a two-speed Europe which smooths the way for faster integration of the Eurozone countries whilst maintaining Sweden, Denmark and the UK as associates. Give the non-Eurozone countries more autonomy and everybody wins.

His analysis of a possible Grexit is similarly deeply flawed. Initial Greek membership of the Eurozone was based on foolish sentimentality and a fraud. Had Greece exited the Eurozone 5 years ago it and the Eurozone would already be far better off. The idea that the withdrawal of a country with a GDP so small that Apple could buy it for small change would be catastrophic for world economic stability is simply idiotic.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: 2015 UK General Election

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Wed May 20, 2015 6:10 pm

I don't think Cameron is terribly bright as people with firsts in PPE at Oxbridge go. FWIW ;)
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