Greece debt crisis

[John McKenna]

I'm talking about the democratic deficit, Matthew.

Don't disagree with your analysis, above, but who voted for any of it?
Last Sunday the Greek people certainly didn't.

By the way, I hope all those in the "squeezed middle", here in the UK, who voted Tory enjoyed Georgie boy's budget!

[John McKenna]

"We are obsessing over a currency instead of the will of the people." Digby Jones (former head of the CBI on LBC Radio)

[NickFaulks]

what on earth are you talking about? originally Greece was going to get 8.5bn, now they might get 50bn and debt relief -

The Greek people will get what they were always going to get, nothing. The "50bn" is just book entries to save the Greek banking system, which is run for the benefit of the Eurogroup, not the Greeks. As for debt relief, they're going to talk about it. Didn't we hear that in 2012?

[John McKenna]

... Still very unclear what the outcome will be; I don't see how Greek Banks can really open for normal business. As soon as a deal is agreed I wonder if we might see all the banks nationalised?

And if a deal is not agreed then Greece presumably exits the Eurozone and what happens then to the Greek banks?

I don't know the answer to that but every finance minister in the EU should be thinking hard about it.

what on earth are you talking about? originally Greece was going to get 8.5bn, now they might get 50bn and debt relief -

The Greek people will get what they were always going to get, nothing...The "50bn" is just book entries to save the Greek banking system, which is run for the benefit of the Eurogroup, not the Greeks. As for debt relief, they're going to talk about it. Didn't we hear that in 2012?

If Greece stays in the Eurozone middle-class Greek savers get to preserve their nest eggs.
Should it come Grexit then their savings could be decimalised at the rate of 10 new drachmas to the euro?
Probably not as bad as that but experts estimate a 30% fall in their value if Grexit occurs.
However, high inflation is also with a new Greek currency expected and that will further eat into the value of savings.

[NickFaulks]

The debate going on in Germany this weekend may seem rather esoteric here, but the Berlin/Frankfurt establishment is tearing itself apart. By the time the Greek crisis is over, the effect on Greece itself may be of relatively minor significance.

[Matthew Turner]

I'm talking about the democratic deficit, Matthew.

Don't disagree with your analysis, above, but who voted for any of it?
Last Sunday the Greek people certainly didn't.

This is a separate issue and a charge that has oft been levelled at the EU. However, your comment seems strangely mistimed; You were talking about the negotiations between Greece and Germany and who had gained the upper hand. It seems to me that the German stance represents the view of the majority of Germans and the Greek stance represents the view of the majority of Greeks, so that would appear to be democracy in action?
Perhaps you mean that it will all get sorted out by the unelected IMF? Maybe, but they seem to pretty accurately reflect the majority view of everybody else!

[John McKenna]

Last I heard the IMF were advocating a third bailout of 60bn euros plus large-scale debt relief for Greece - with the EU contributing the lion's share. That is exactly what the EU wish to avoid because, as you already said, their immediate aim is to bring about the fall of Tsipras and his gov.

The democratic and economic issues cannot be separated because no matter how much Brits and the other peripherals may wish the EU to just be a "common market" the countries in the Eurozone have created a political entity with a bureaucracy reminiscent of Imperial Byzantium rather than Republican Rome.

If a joint Greek & German referendum were to be held next Sunday with a simple "Greece IN/OUT" question the majority of Greeks would probably vote to stay in the Eurozone, but the majority of Germans would probably vote them out. That is why the EU is now thinking of fudging by proposing temporary Greek exit from the Eurozone.

Who then has the upper hand?

Some might say the Franco-German Fourth Reich.

[Mike Truran]

I wonder whether things aren't simpler than that? It may be that the countries that have funded Greece so far and are being asked to fund Greece again are wondering whether the game is worth the candle and whether they would just be throwing good money after bad.

Particularly as they clearly don't trust Greece to do what it promises. On past evidence, can one really blame them?

[John McKenna]

Mike, I think you see this drama in terms of Downton Abbey - if only the unruly lot downstairs would behave then they and them upstairs could all pull together, stand united and save the dynasty. I see it more in terms of Game of Thrones in which there's triple trouble brewing - in the Kingdom, all along the Wall and in the East, as well, presaging the fall of a divided dynasty. Time will tell.

[Phil Neatherway]

I agree with Mike, this is all about the creditors wanting to make sure they get their money back. It's nothing to do with democracy.

[John McKenna]

And, when David and George go, promise of a referendum in hand, to reclaim powers and tribute then that won't be about democracy either, I suspect.

[Phil Neatherway]

John, I must admit to having trouble following a lot of your posts. For example, I know they want to rclain powers, but where does tribute come into it?

As regards democracy, I don't understand your point. Are you saying that the democratic will of the Greek people is not to repay their debts?

[Matthew Turner]

Creditors know and have known for some time that they wouldn't be getting their money back. There is nothing particularly wrong with that, it makes economic sense to have fiscal transfer from rich to poor in a 'Union'. However, it is difficult to sell to the populus in creditor nations if Greeks are seen not paying taxes and getting salaries 13 months of the year.

[NickFaulks]

It's nothing to do with democracy.

You're certainly right there. The EU has nothing to do with democracy, except the need to crush it. They know that it is toxic to their project.

The good news about last night is that the secret is out - see #thisisacoup.

[John McKenna]

Phil, if the negotiations only result in a return of certain 'powers' to the UK and the bill isn't also cut then Dave & George will have failed to live up to the mission of St. Margaret. UKIP say that the evil geniuses Tony & Gordon gave away the hard-won rebate she brought back from Brussels. As for the Greek debt, I don't think the ordinary Greek people feel they owe much of it at all. Although Matthew, above, makes the case that they should.

(Apologies for posting in a somewhat cryptic style. I hope my points come across in this instance.)

It's nothing to do with democracy.

You're certainly right there. The EU has nothing to do with democracy, except the need to crush it. They know that it is toxic to their project.

The good news about last night is that the secret is out - see #thisisacoup.

I'll let you know what I think about that later, Nick, when I've found it.