EU Referendum - in or out?

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Angus French
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Angus French » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:01 pm

What about 1987 - or is that not "in living memory"?

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:05 pm

Oh. Are the journalists getting that wrong (I may be confusing stockmarket and currency [exchange rate] volatility)?

Hard line from the EU:

"the deal agreed with Mr Cameron in February to protect London's financial markets, curb immigration and opt out of closer union "ceases to exist" and "there will be no renegotiation"."

Maybe discussion on this forum of the referendum aftermath should now be in a new thread?

NickFaulks
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:07 pm

Angus French wrote:What about 1987 - or is that not "in living memory"?
I think you're missing my point, which is that media reports that the blips at the RH end of the charts are unprecedented crashes look a bit exaggerated.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:10 pm

Bet the 'Remain' bit of government are regretting the decision not to get 16 and 17 year old voting in the election:

'What have we done' - teenage anger over Brexit vote

Nick, in all seriousness, what would you say to the young people angry about this?

Mick Norris
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:17 pm

Indeed, my 11 year old daughter is now worried she won't be able to go and work at Disneyland Paris

I have been sent over a dozen different updates already from Product Providers and Fund Managers - nice to hear from Steph Flanders though
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NickFaulks
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:15 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Bet the 'Remain' bit of government are regretting the decision not to get 16 and 17 year old voting in the election:

'What have we done' - teenage anger over Brexit vote

Nick, in all seriousness, what would you say to the young people angry about this?
I'd say, indeed I have said, that they have been brainwashed. Just to give one example, there is a widespread belief among the young that they will soon need to get a visa to go on holiday in France.

I heard a group of 18 year olds on the radio this morning saying how terrible it was that Brexit had sent the pound lower. I doubt that they had ever thought about currency policy before, and am sure they were unaware that keeping down the value of the pound to promote our exporters' competitiveness has been official policy for years.

To be fair to the youngsters, Jeremy Corbyn has just been on my TV screen saying that the drop in the value of the pound will cause job losses. How does that work, Jeremy?
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:25 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Angus French wrote:What about 1987 - or is that not "in living memory"?
I think you're missing my point, which is that media reports that the blips at the RH end of the charts are unprecedented crashes look a bit exaggerated.
The angst was over one specific statistic, the "biggest one-day fall".

Over a longer period of time (weeks, months) the pound has declined further, but this was a 10% reduction in a single day. Sure, the pound predictably rebounded (hence won't have affected anyone except those who dip in and out of the currency markets trying to make money from them), and we won't know the long-term effects until months or years have passed (and other effects will have their say as well), but that level of volatility isn't good.

https://twitter.com/JoelLewin/status/74 ... 16/photo/1

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Joey Stewart
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Joey Stewart » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:53 pm

I am kind of glad I didnt gamble on it - I had thought of cashing in some of my foreign shares back to pounds, thinking that the huge "stay" campaign would have been enough to turn the tide and I would have made bank, but as it turned out I would have lost out if I did that.

So, as far as I am concerned, I am already better off from the result!
Lose one queen and it is a disaster, Lose 1000 queens and it is just a statistic.

NickFaulks
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:01 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: but that level of volatility isn't good
https://twitter.com/JoelLewin/status/74 ... 16/photo/1
There is a big difference between a single big market move in response to a genuine fundamental event and "volatility". The latter is caused by traders and, nowadays, their bots, which are programmed to run prices up and down as far and as fast as possible in order to maximise profit opportunities. This serves no purpose other than to provide well paid jobs in the City.

Last week the pound traded down to $1.41. Following the Jo Cox murder the bots were able in thin markets to run it all the way up to $1.50, an untenable level. It has now come down to $1.37, after a panic lower as players with the wrong positions bailed out.

Businesses are not troubled by short term volatility, since they do not change their plans hour by hour. They're not keen on longer term volatity, which can derail their plans, but as my chart showed what has happened today really won't be very noticeable in those terms.
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Martin Crichton
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Martin Crichton » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:02 pm

some exerpts from a debate I had earlier today with some people / friends:)


life is good :) and it is going to get better for me personally

there will be winners and losers

interestingly I read the the Irish Taoiseach visited Ruislip a few weeks ago trying to galvanise Irish voters in the UK to vote remain

what a ***********...he should have consulted me first lol there are many more Irish living in Hayes than the cosy rich town of Ruislip (I worked there for 2 years)

Ruislip is in my borough but in the rich North part...I live in the poor South part - Hayes

The borough of Hillingdon (which includes Hayes and Ruislip) voted 56.8% to leave...that means Hayes probably voted 75% to leave

we (most of the people of Hayes) are sick of the rich ******* - (politicians) dumping all the migrants and asylum seekers in our town

fair play to Cameron...he did the honourable thing this morning.

in 18-24 months ...maybe less certain drinking partying ****** ******* who have no respect or regard for their neighbours will be going back to their home country.

Bon Voyage!

As you know I value my sleep.

---------------------------

&

I was tempted to reply to your last email but refrained. Now that it is consigned to history I can tell you that this Irish migrant (26 years living in the UK) and my Zimbabwean partner, my step daughter and sister in law all voted for the UK to leave the EU.

-------------------------------------------

of course everyone is effected differently and there are pros and cons on both sides of the arguments. However the future unfolds at least now the UK (not Brussels) are masters of their own destiny. (I also think BJ will make a great PM...he was a great mayor for London)
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Alex Holowczak
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:42 pm

Angus French wrote:What about 1987 - or is that not "in living memory"?
Not for me, no! :P

Alex Holowczak
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:46 pm

The stock market reaction has surprised me; specifically how the UK is holding up compared to some other countries (which, I accept, are somewhat random selections):

UK: FTSE down 5%
Germany: Dax down 7%
Japan: Nikkei down 8%
France: CAC down 8%
Spain: Down 11%
Italy: Down 11%
USA: Dow Jones and Nasdaq down about 3%, but not been open very long.

NickFaulks
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:51 pm

Another student interviewed on BBC TV says that she understands that the pound is back where it was in 1985, which means that the economy can only get worse. She must know more about the UK economy in 1985 than I do, because I remember it going pretty well.

Sorry, but they are obviously being spoonfed this rubbish and I don't see why I should take their "opinions" seriously.
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Martin Crichton
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by Martin Crichton » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:54 pm

2:50pm

FTSE 100 only down 2.42%

markets always initially overreact before correcting themselves

easy money to be made for some
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MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU Referendum - in or out?

Post by MartinCarpenter » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:11 pm

Come on Nick, this is not going to help the economy in the short term. You can argue what'll happen in the medium/long term but there is going to be very real disruption over the next 5-10 (20?) years before they can get all the trade deals etc unpicked and then put back together.

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