EU referendum aftermath

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PeterFarr
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by PeterFarr » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:23 pm

Dragoljub Sudar wrote:I didn't realise you know how millions of people think. No doubt Mrs May will be begging you to offer her your infinite wisdom.

Please stop making wide sweeping claims which you cannot even begin to substantiate.
Well I can try; this for example:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... ent-obama/

It's closer to proof than anything you can show me about Mrs May's intention to ask me for advice.

Dragoljub Sudar
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Dragoljub Sudar » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:33 pm

Yeah, always believe pollsters. They told us Remain would win. They told us the Tories would not get a majority last year.

Anyway, I do like your club name. You're honour bound to argue your point!

PeterFarr
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by PeterFarr » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:37 pm

Dragoljub Sudar wrote:Yeah, always believe pollsters. They told us Remain would win. They told us the Tories would not get a majority last year.

Anyway, I do like your club name. You're honour bound to argue your point!
Ha yes good points. I'm afraid we will argue endlessly about anything! :-)

Alex Holowczak
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Alex Holowczak » Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:48 pm

Dragoljub Sudar wrote:Yeah, always believe pollsters. They told us Remain would win.
Not all of them did: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... endum#2016

MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by MartinCarpenter » Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:15 pm

Non predictive polls do tend to be rather more reliable :) Ob very definitely a really good orator, which is always nice.

Trump of course another wonderful example of party members making a truly insane choice of candidate. Dangerously so in this case.
(Makes Labour/Corbyn look downright sane.).

No article 50 this year it seems. It'll be ages before this is finally sorted.

Alistair Campbell
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Alistair Campbell » Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:30 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
Alistair Campbell wrote:If I were cynical, I suspect the shuttle diplomacy that Nicola was carrying out had two purposes - to make her look stateswomanlike, and emphasise the difference between Scotland and England.
So what are the differences?
Apols for the delayed response. That is a good question – maybe I should ask you the same?

A different history, clearly. This is usually thought of as being manifested by:

A slightly different legal system
A slightly different education system
A different established church

There is a slightly different language – different words, different pronunciation, different accents

Different banknotes, different sporting structures, slightly different broadcasting and other media. A different geography. Different voting behaviours (but not necessarily different social attitudes).

Things like tartan, haggis, bagpipes…

Are those big differences? Not particularly – I don’t think an English visitor would take too long to adapt, but if you weren’t sure, you would soon be able to tell that you were in Scotland.

Are those differences bigger than between Yorkshire or Cornwall and the rest of England – undoubtedly IMO. Than Estonia and Russia, say? Probably not. Between North of Italy and the South, or Catalonia and the rest of Spain? I wouldn’t like to say.

A “class” analysis might argue that e.g. a worker in Glasgow has more in common with one in Liverpool or Newcastle than with one in the Highlands.

There are commonalities – 300 years of shared history, a language, the BBC, Sterling, the Queen, the island.

Scots get irritated by things like referring to England when Britain or the UK is meant, by references to the North West to mean Liverpool and not Ullapool, by Scottish sporting news being a seeming afterthought on the news programs, and are bemused by the ignorance (and indeed the ignorance) of some to all things Scottish.
Christopher Kreuzer wrote: Do Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland have more in common with England than with continental Europe?
I would say yes.
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Are those debating this in Scotland aware of what the debate is like in Gibraltar at the moment?
I wouldn’t have thought so.

NickFaulks
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Jul 22, 2016 6:23 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Are those debating this in Scotland aware of what the debate is like in Gibraltar at the moment?
The Spanish Foreign Minister said on the day after the vote

"The Spanish flag on the Rock is much closer than it was before".

What I hear from Gib is that the general population is far less concerned about not being part of the EU than about being part of Spain, but of course they fear the two are connected. They have little in common with Scotland.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:59 pm

Legal action against Corbyn being on the Labour leadership ballot without MP nominations has been dismissed by the courts.

The absolutely correct decision (and I say that as someone who will very likely vote for Smith)
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

Mick Norris
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:Legal action against Corbyn being on the Labour leadership ballot without MP nominations has been dismissed by the courts.

The absolutely correct decision (and I say that as someone who will very likely vote for Smith)
Yes, good decision, but the rules need changing after this time - at the very least, to make them clearer, preferably to change the substance of them

Hopefully, the election can proceed now without any more Court appearances, but I fear the other NEC decision to exclude members after Jan 12th may go to Court
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:49 pm

Definitely a good thing. The rules are a total mess of course but if people can't accept the basic authority of the parties bodies in deciding this sort of thing then......

One interesting thing about all those recent doom laden polls - having Labour behind the Conservatives by a chunk isn't such a surprise (and will correct a bit unless Labour utterly implode) but the Lib Dems being so stuck on <10% (and behind UKIP) perhaps is?

A rebound from them is the only real obstacle to the Conservatives next time.

Angus French
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Angus French » Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:57 am

This looks to me a very good summary of the research/analysis of why people voted Leave or Remain.

NickFaulks
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:49 am

Angus French wrote:This looks to me a very good summary of the research/analysis of why people voted Leave or Remain.
Those who cannot see the value in membership of the European Union are ignorant, ill-educated and probably don't smell very nice. I wouldn't expect a Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, bitter that his personal EU gravy train may be coming to an end, to reach any other conclusion.

MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:21 pm

Umm, no, mostly just stuck in the past it seems from reading that. Of course for some of the places that voted leave in numbers, life probably was better thirty (40,50) years ago :( Not that leaving Europe is going to help them, but it seems they mostly didn't especially expect that.

Over in Labour land, at least that's the last court case out of the way. Hopefully they'll actually draft some properly coherent rules for next time. UKIP providing an even less organised example :)

Incidentally, not that an Oxbridge Prof needs my defence!, but EU funding for research really isn't so important there. Oxbridge is incredibly wealthy and prestigious enough to get funding from all sorts of places. If we don't get back into the EU research programs it will definitely be a real problem for some other universities/early career researchers etc.

Suspect we will eventually - just financial sense if nothing else, as we did brilliantly getting funding.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:34 pm

Angus linked to a blog post by Simon Wren-Lewis (the aforementioned Professor of Economic Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University). The analysis by Wren-Lewis of migration factors seems a bit simplistic/dismissive: "However, even if it matters, it does not matter that much, as the large majority for Remain in London tells us." This bit is probably accurate: "There is no reason why we need to choose between the economic and the social types of explanation. [...] both [can] be right."

Mick Norris
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:40 pm

MartinCarpenter wrote:Over in Labour land, at least that's the last court case out of the way
Apart from the appeal :!:

Court case
Labour is to appeal the court's ruling. The case could be heard on Thursday.
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

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