EU referendum aftermath

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:07 am

NickFaulks wrote:Meanwhile, there is still no sign that the Labour party will organise itself to play any serious part in the exit process. This is a great shame, since our democracy relies heavily upon the existence of a functioning opposition.
Indeed. I have already written to my (Labour) MP (one of the new intake of 2015) expressing my hope that the opposition to the new government will be an effective one, able to hold them to account for the promises made by the 'Leave' side during the referendum campaign.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:11 am

NickFaulks wrote:I think the above post tells us more about the Guardian's comments section than about any political reality.
More likely that Boris will run and win, and Gove and others may come up with something that is palatable.

Does anyone think that the Labour Party might actually split and a new centre party might form? The USA appears to be going through a political realignment. Might the same happen in the UK?

Nick Burrows
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Nick Burrows » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:15 am

NickFaulks wrote:Meanwhile, there is still no sign that the Labour party will organise itself to play any serious part in the exit process. This is a great shame, since our democracy relies heavily upon the existence of a functioning opposition.
Since Corbyn took over the Tories have "coincidentally" been forced to back down on many central policies: school academisation, tax credits, disabled pip benefits, Saudi prison contracts etc etc.
The previous 'blairite' labour leadership agreed with the Tories on broadly everything due to being a 'centre right' political entity.
Its the takeover from the left of the party that has created the first genuine opposition in years. The problem is that the parliamentary labour party is still 80% Blairite and intent on wrestling power back from the left.
If Corbyn has been this successful from within a conflicted party, imagine what a unified left could achieve.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:22 am

Nick Burrows wrote: If Corbyn has been this successful from within a conflicted party, imagine what a unified left could achieve.
Yeah, but he needs a unified party to do that. If the party splits, what will he have left? Or are you talking about a broad coalition of the left across different parties?

NickFaulks
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:24 am

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
More likely that Boris will run and win
Do not take that for granted - the BBC does, which is often a good contrary indicator. I haven't heard Theresa May's name mentioned once lately, which must at this stage be exactly the way she likes it.
Does anyone think that the Labour Party might actually split and a new centre party might form?
The last such venture has only just fizzled out with the hapless Nick Clegg.
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NickFaulks
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:31 am

Nick Burrows wrote: Since Corbyn took over the Tories have "coincidentally" been forced to back down on many central policies: school academisation, tax credits, disabled pip benefits, Saudi prison contracts etc etc.
I'm going to argue that it was disaffected backbench ( and sometimes frontbench ) Tories who did most of the heavy lifting, with Labour along for the ride, but there is scope for disagreement there.
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:33 am

NickFaulks wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:
More likely that Boris will run and win
Do not take that for granted - the BBC does, which is often a good contrary indicator. I haven't heard Theresa May's name mentioned once lately, which must at this stage be exactly the way she likes it.
Does anyone think that the Labour Party might actually split and a new centre party might form?
The last such venture has only just fizzled out with the hapless Nick Clegg.
I agree Theresa May (whose name has been mentioned a bit) or some other outrider might get it.

In an ideal world, who should be leading the Parliamentary Labour Party (yeah, I know, the person who gets the votes from the party members). Do you think someone could do a better job than Corbyn of providing opposition to the government? Hilary Benn?

NickFaulks
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:43 am

Christopher Kreuzer wrote: In an ideal world, who should be leading the Parliamentary Labour Party (yeah, I know, the person who gets the votes from the party members).
Surely that's the point. Many / most PLP members would prefer that their leader were NOT the person who gets the votes from the party members. I'm not a Labour party member and am not going to tell them how to choose their leader, but it does have consequences for all of us.
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:59 am

I'm finally cleaning out emails that I missed last week, including this one from Thursday.
FT Breaking News wrote: Sterling pops to year’s high as poll puts ‘Remain’ ahead
The latest indication that the result of the referendum will be to Remain in the EU has given sterling a kick higher to $1.4988.
Just a reminder that Friday's drop came from a very silly level.
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Angus French
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Angus French » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:03 am

Nick Burrows wrote:Since Corbyn took over the Tories have "coincidentally" been forced to back down on many central policies: school academisation, tax credits, disabled pip benefits, Saudi prison contracts etc etc.
The previous 'blairite' labour leadership agreed with the Tories on broadly everything due to being a 'centre right' political entity.
Its the takeover from the left of the party that has created the first genuine opposition in years. The problem is that the parliamentary labour party is still 80% Blairite and intent on wrestling power back from the left.
If Corbyn has been this successful from within a conflicted party, imagine what a unified left could achieve.
Well said.

David Gilbert
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by David Gilbert » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:28 pm

Last month the House of Lords published a short Report setting out the process for withdrawal and some of the key issues we and the remaining members of the EU will face. It might be of interest here:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 38/138.pdf

MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by MartinCarpenter » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:33 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote: In an ideal world, who should be leading the Parliamentary Labour Party (yeah, I know, the person who gets the votes from the party members).
Surely that's the point. Many / most PLP members would prefer that their leader were NOT the person who gets the votes from the party members. I'm not a Labour party member and am not going to tell them how to choose their leader, but it does have consequences for all of us.
This is a universal problem with having your party membership choose a leader - with how the membership of the big parties has gone, they're really not hugely representative of the overall public or hard headed in terms of choosing really efficient political leaders.

I'm very far from convinced about Boris - there's a fair chunk of the Conservative party who simply won't forgive him. The current majority is really quite small and it has to be incredibly uncertain if he could govern in a remotely sane manner. They're generally much too pragmatic to do something silly like that and presume they'll line up some sort of compromise candidate instead.

That or maybe split entirely. Honestly both major parties could do with splitting in two, but our ***** electoral system doesn't let that work.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:42 pm

Could it happen?

- UK votes to leave EU
- Claim that new Scotland referendum needed
- Scotland votes to leave UK
- Claim that new referendums needed
- Scotland and rUK separately vote to stay in EU (the question would be worded to nullify the previous leave referendum result).
- Claim that new referendums needed
- Scotland and rUK vote to reunify

Admittedly, the sequence will probably stop at the breakup stage, but there is a certain logic to it. How often have unification referendums suceeded in modern times? i.e. Voting to join a larger group - the EU accession votes are one example. There are others.

Ian Thompson
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by Ian Thompson » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:06 pm

David Gilbert wrote:Last month the House of Lords published a short Report setting out the process for withdrawal and some of the key issues we and the remaining members of the EU will face. It might be of interest here:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 38/138.pdf
I don't remember anyone, on either side of the campaign, mentioning this:

"the outcome of the recent renegotiation of the UK’s membership terms will, in the event of a vote to leave the EU, fall the moment the result of the referendum is known." (Para 13 of the report).

MartinCarpenter
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Re: EU referendum aftermath

Post by MartinCarpenter » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:13 pm

Honestly, at that point I think the EU would throw us out :)

One thing you have to remember is that even simply unpicking the relationship between the UK and Europe - and even worse with Scotland - is going to be a truly horrible task. Maybe 10 years before it'll be sensibly complete, maybe more to get it really working again.

No one even remotely sane will want to go through that all over again in a hurry. Honestly no one sane would want to do it now, but it got rather brushed aside during the campaign.

Of course, if the young people voting in the referendum keep the same outlook on life as they grow up, we'll be very, very firmly European in 20 years. Could well start to rejoin round then. People do tend to get more regressive over time though.

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