General Election 2017

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IM Jack Rudd
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by IM Jack Rudd » Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:21 pm

Although interestingly, despite the collapse of third-party votes and the polarization, the number of seats won by Labour and the Conservatives combined in this election was the same as that in 2001.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:19 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:When you get change like that, is it part of a long-term demographic change, or is it a single-election protest that reverses at the next election? It can be hard to tell. There are boundary changes coming at some point (not sure exactly where), though probably another election before then...
It's not anything like that. It's people who were pro-Brexit voting for the Conservatives instead of UKIP. This area was one of the strongest pro-Brexit areas of the country. I expect that once Brexit is completed, Labour will resume their dominance of these constituencies.

The boundary changes come in next year. The number of MPs will reduce from 650 to 600, and the expectation is that the changes are worth 15-25 seats to the Conservatives. This was another good reason against an election in 2017. It is a good reason for the Conservative-DUP alliance to hang on until next year.
The new parliament will still have to approve the boundary changes - and the DUP genuinely *loathes* the proposed changes in NI.

One reason, among others, why many are speculating they are now dead.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:21 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:The new parliament will have to approve the boundary changes - and the DUP genuinely *loathes* the(m). One reason why many are speculating they are now dead
True. And much more as well. A CON-DUP 'confidence and supply' arrangement may not even survive the ridicule of this weekend's Press. It's a political absurdity even if commonsense hasn't already deemed it nonsense-on-stilts. The arrangement means the British Government is dependent on the wit, ethics and judgement of the equivalent of a handful of Fenland farmhands. Beyond absurd

Alex Holowczak
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Alex Holowczak » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:54 pm

Matt Mackenzie wrote:The new parliament will still have to approve the boundary changes
Oh - I thought the whole point of the Boundary Commission was that it was independent of Parliamentary approval.

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:12 pm

Recommendations are independent. But Parliament is sovereign

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:39 pm

David Robertson wrote: It's a political absurdity even if commonsense hasn't already deemed it nonsense-on-stilts. The arrangement means the British Government is dependent on the wit, ethics and judgement of the equivalent of a handful of Fenland farmhands. Beyond absurd
Your disdain for the Irish and East Anglians will no doubt find support in many places, but isn't this just a return to the old, and very longstanding, Conservative & Unionist Party?

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:59 pm

NickFaulks wrote:...isn't this just a return to the old, and very longstanding, Conservative & Unionist Party?
Not in the least. The 'official' Unionists were the UUP, generally urban, professional etc. But Paisley's DUP was a radical outflanking of the UUP establishment, drawing on primitive religious tribalism among largely rural voters - backwoodsmen, hillbillies, whatever; hence, my equation with the English Fens (by reputation).

For avoidance of doubt: I very much like the Irish generally; and adore their writers and poets. I'd probably say the same about East Anglians, but I never come across any!

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Sun Jun 11, 2017 3:07 pm

Well, well, well. And there I was, thinking he was just another thick fascist. Maybe not after all

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Jun 11, 2017 4:54 pm

David Robertson wrote: And there I was, thinking he was just another thick fascist.
I think that says more about how deeply you think than about how deeply he does.

Neil Graham
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Neil Graham » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:17 pm

Neil Graham wrote:Good news for Leicestershire - Sean Sheahan will be available for the Minor Counties Championship match tomorrow!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/cons ... /E14000858
But not good enough despite Sean's win :-

http://www.oxfordfusion.com/oca/ViewCup ... ot=1&Org=4

Neil Graham
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Neil Graham » Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:22 pm

In the list of chess-playing candidates, I've also discovered why Marten Kats was unavailable for my U100 team this year:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/cons ... /E14000935

MartinCarpenter
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by MartinCarpenter » Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:35 am

David Robertson wrote:
NickFaulks wrote:...isn't this just a return to the old, and very longstanding, Conservative & Unionist Party?
Not in the least. The 'official' Unionists were the UUP, generally urban, professional etc. But Paisley's DUP was a radical outflanking of the UUP establishment, drawing on primitive religious tribalism among largely rural voters - backwoodsmen, hillbillies, whatever; hence, my equation with the English Fens (by reputation).

For avoidance of doubt: I very much like the Irish generally; and adore their writers and poets. I'd probably say the same about East Anglians, but I never come across any!
Yes, I spent a little bit of time thinking 'well that's normal enough' then having to realise which unionist party we're talking about here. Eeek.

I'm not sure why NI Politics has gone the way it has with just SF & the DUP getting seats in Westminster, but it really isn't a healthy state of affairs. Never mind the potentially non trivial scandal going on over in Stormont.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:36 pm

Apparently the polls show that Labour would win a majority if a new election was called. That might change during an election campaign, of course but still food for thought for the Conservatives. I wonder whether the state of play in the Northern Ireland seats might change in another election? (Technically, the UUP sort of still have some representation in the form of the independent MP who was UUP before she resigned the UUP whip.) And the breaking news is that the Queen's Speech is being delayed. Surely this means the start of the Brexit negotiations will need to be delayed?

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:42 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Apparently the polls show that Labour would win a majority if a new election was called.
Third time lucky for the pollsters?

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:07 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:the polls show...
A poll shows

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