General Election 2017

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:16 pm

David Robertson wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:the polls show...
A poll shows
Good point! :!:

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Is it unprecedented to delay the Queen's Speech?

Angus French
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Angus French » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:28 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Is it unprecedented to delay the Queen's Speech?
Don't know but the delay is apparently (according to the World at One) due to the fact the speech has to be written on goatskin parchment paper and would take time to dry. Really?

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:47 pm

The UK is being mocked in Brussels for its difficulty in forming a government following an inconclusive election.

Belgium held an election on 13th June 2010. After negotiations lasting 541 days, a government was finally formed on 5th December 2011. If we cannot do better than that, they will have the right to snigger.
Last edited by NickFaulks on Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Michael Farthing
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Michael Farthing » Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:34 pm

How did Belgium's prosperity duing this period compare with that during times when it had a government?

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:59 pm

Michael Farthing wrote:How did Belgium's prosperity duing this period compare with that during times when it had a government?
At the halfway stage, some people were enjoying it

This reminds me of the story from the late 1980s. After a period of hard-Left administration in Lambeth, moderate Labour Party members, now back in control, decided to undertake widespread consultation among the local voters. What did they want? The message came back loud and clear - Get Rid of the Council. But we are, the moderates explained. "No, no!" the feedback insisted, "The Council. All of it!"

NickFaulks
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by NickFaulks » Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:22 pm

Angus French wrote:Don't know but the delay is apparently (according to the World at One) due to the fact the speech has to be written on goatskin parchment paper and would take time to dry. Really?
That story seems to have credence. If it avoided a clash with Ascot, I suspect that HM would be happy to read her speech scribbled in crayon on toilet paper.

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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:29 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Angus French wrote:Don't know but the delay is apparently (according to the World at One) due to the fact the speech has to be written on goatskin parchment paper and would take time to dry. Really?
That story seems to have credence. If it avoided a clash with Ascot, I suspect that HM would be happy to read her speech scribbled in crayon on toilet paper.
Common sense, and more responsible reporting, is saying that the speech is written onto vellum after it's delivered.

Mick Norris
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Mick Norris » Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:57 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Apparently the polls show that Labour would win a majority if a new election was called. That might change during an election campaign, of course but still food for thought for the Conservatives
There was an interesting piece about polls on the Daily Politics BBC2 this lunchtime; you can see it on the BBC website under the Election latest thread

Survation actually got it right last week; so the other pollsters will have another enquiry into their methods (summary, they overcompensated for the 2015 mistakes)

Interesting to see how close some of the Labour losses were, and indeed the Tories too Peter Barnes
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Christopher Kreuzer
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Christopher Kreuzer » Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:11 pm

Both the main parties have lots of marginal seats to defend and lots of marginal seats to target (not sure which party has a larger advantage in terms of genuinely safe seats). Very difficult to know where those marginal seats will end up. Predicting a hung parliament before the election just gone was relatively easy. Predicting the result of a new election in the next few months is much harder. If this government does limp on until 2022 (unlikely), things might be different then. I'm wondering what will happen at the point where by-elections or defections change the parliamentary arithmetic.

Matthew Turner
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Matthew Turner » Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:46 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Predicting a hung parliament before the election just gone was relatively easy. Predicting the result of a new election in the next few months is much harder.
I disagree. Labour did better than most people expected for three reason
1. The Tories had a poor leader
2. The Tory manifesto was awful
3. People picked up on the fact that the labour leadership genuinely believed what they said.

Not sure any of these will apply a couple of months down the line, so a comfortable Conservative majority.

David Sedgwick
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Sedgwick » Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:49 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Predicting a hung parliament before the election just gone was relatively easy. Predicting the result of a new election in the next few months is much harder.
I disagree. Labour did better than most people expected for three reason
1. The Tories had a poor leader
2. The Tory manifesto was awful
3. People picked up on the fact that the labour leadership genuinely believed what they said.

Not sure any of these will apply a couple of months down the line, so a comfortable Conservative majority.
Why should Point 3 not still apply?

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:02 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Predicting a hung parliament before the election just gone was relatively easy. Predicting the result of a new election in the next few months is much harder.
I disagree. Labour did better than most people expected for three reason
1. The Tories had a poor leader
2. The Tory manifesto was awful
3. People picked up on the fact that the labour leadership genuinely believed what they said.

Not sure any of these will apply a couple of months down the line, so a comfortable Conservative majority.
Even though the Tories are looking more ridiculous by the day??

There is also the Brexit thing to consider - that's why this silly and unnecessary election was called, remember - the actual talks are starting soon, and will likely be going on for a while. Good luck in justifying calling ANOTHER snap election whilst they are still in progress........
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

David Robertson
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by David Robertson » Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:03 pm

Christopher Kreuzer wrote:not sure which party has a larger advantage in terms of genuinely safe seats
Labour. It was 25 MPs with majorities >30k, seven of which are within fifteen minutes of me; four in the city alone. That's Labour's problem: lots of depth; insufficient breadth.
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:Predicting a hung parliament before the election just gone was relatively easy
It wasn't! Well done to you. But pretty much everyone else, including both main parties, thought it would be a comfortable Tory win
Christopher Kreuzer wrote:If this government does limp on until 2022 (unlikely)
Yes, very unlikely. But I'd not bet on another GE that soon unless events intervene. The Tories will not want to fight one any time soon. They have things to sort out:

* a new Leader: May won't lead into a GE again
* understanding what Labour did to keep themselves in the game: social media strategy
* what coalition of votes do the Tories chase: same again, or back to tried and tested?
* let Corbyn age a year or two

Hence, DUP is in a very strong position

Thing Labour needs to understand is: doing well is fine, but things don't stand still. We know it: outbook your opponent in one game, but go down the same line in the next, then don't be surprised to find your opponent better prepped

Nick Burrows
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Nick Burrows » Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:10 pm

Alternatively, Labours position has improved dramatically:

1. Membership is now up to 800'000. Much of this is a politically engaged youth, and will translate into an army of activists knocking on doors whenever the election is called.
2. For the first time since Corbyn became the leader, he will now have a united plp behind him and will be able to draw on all the talents in the party to hold the Tories to account.
3. Labour were within 2000 votes of being the largest party and need around a 3.5% swing (I believe) for a majority.
4. The Tories for the time being will be headed by a mortally wounded leader, backed up by the DUP who hold views simply not acceptable to the majority of the electorate. They will find it impossible to get virtually anything past the house of commons.


I predict a labour government within 1 year.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: General Election 2017

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:16 pm

As far as Labour is concerned, I've always been convinced - with *some* objective evidence to support it - that Corbyn always intended to stand aside as leader before the planned 2020 GE, but he wanted to get some form of the "McDonnell amendment" passed first so that a still Blairite-heavy PLP (though that is very likely a bit less the case now) couldn't effective veto any left-winger from the ballot.

The likelihood that something along those lines will get approved must be pretty high now.

Also, the Labour advantage in this campaign wasn't just on social media - though that was extremely important - but through sheer weight of numbers, it turned out quite a few of the post-2015 influx were willing to get stuck into campaigning after all. There has been a further membership surge since Thursday - there are definitely over 600k members now and some even bigger and more unlikely numbers are being banded about.

But to quote an infamous tweet from the BBC's totally fair unbiased and objective political editor, it seems that Labour will be content to see the government "stew in its own juice" for the time being. This could be a wise strategy......
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

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