Average of all graded players in the UK

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Adam Raoof
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Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Adam Raoof » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:34 pm

What is it?

Is it higher than the average of all the FIDE rated players in the UK (when converted)?

Are we higher on average than all nationally (as opposed to internationally) rated Germans or Icelandic rated players?

Are we improving?

Roger de Coverly
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:55 pm

Adam Raoof wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:34 pm
What is it?

Is it higher than the average of all the FIDE rated players in the UK (when converted)?
Richard Haddrell used to maintain statistics on this. These are archived to 2016. I don't know if anyone is continuing to analyse and publish the results.

http://www.sccu-chess.com/archive/1516/grad.htm

The average is pretty much constant at 133, apart from a nosedive to 130 in 2016. Prior to the vandalism of the regrading exercise, it would have been in the 115 to 120 range.

Without checking, that's likely to be way below the average of FIDE rated players for the fairly obvious reason that most events restricted to lower graded players aren't FIDE rated.

I would be sceptical about attempting to evaluate whether standards were improving or declining purely from a domestic rating or grading list. You can argue that top players are getting better whilst beginners aren't which will or should cause a rating list to stretch. I wouldn't be sure that's true if it ever was as there are plentiful resources to help players before they venture out into their first league or tournament game.

Michael Flatt
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Michael Flatt » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:25 pm

The annual statistics that Richard Haddrell used to provide were a byproduct of his role as Grading Administrator where he had access to the ECF grading database.

The grading database is a valuable but largely unexploited resource. It could be used to provide a range of statistics that would inform any discussion on the state of chess in England.

The current topic of County Chess is one such area:
1. How many people play graded chess games?
2. How often do people play?
3. Which category of chess do they play - County Chess, Congresses, evening league, 4NCL?
4. What proportion of players are juniors?
5. How many have FIDE registration?
and so on ...

NickFaulks
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:32 pm

Adam Raoof wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:34 pm
Are we improving?
Does that have any connection with the other questions?

Brian Valentine
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Brian Valentine » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:09 pm

As resident ECF grading stats geek, I rise to the challenging examination paper set by Adam. I do this reluctantly because the grading system is fragile, although the numbers appear robust. So, to keep the caveats short, I’ll point out that 12.5% 0f the January List of categorised players were not in the July 2017 list. This level of change makes drawing conclusions difficult and I have not bothered to ask why Adam is asking these questions now. It might be more appropriate to use the August list, but my main motivation for collecting these stats is to check each 6-monthly list and the July one is the important first pass; so that’s what I aim to keep.

The average grade of all players with a grading category in July 2017 was 129.3. If one excludes category F this rises to 132.8. One correspondent to this forum recommended keeping the game weighted average and this, which I have dubbed the EMW Index, comes out at 136.8.

I have decided to duck the conversion question. However, if we look at the August ECF and FIDE lists I do have some numbers from a recent investigation. I excluded juniors (identified in either list by either published age or date of birth), because grades and ratings don’t stack up too well. So, I have a list of “senior players” that were active in both lists. Those listed as ENG (1,203 of them) have averages of: grade 166, rating 1985. Those not ENG come out as (904), 177, 2028.

I don’t keep information on FIDE ratings.

As to whether we are improving, this is a deep philosophical question that grading can’t answer. What I can say is that the average, excluding category F has been in the range 131.8 to 133.7 since the recalibration exercise effective July 2009.

Alex McFarlane
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Alex McFarlane » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:40 pm

Brian Valentine wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:09 pm
I have decided to duck the conversion question.
I'm not sure how it is possible to duck the conversion question and still answer the question.
Adam Raoof wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:34 pm
Is it higher than the average of all the FIDE rated players in the UK (when converted)?
I hope this is not another person confusing the UK with England! To give an analysis you will obviously have to convert the ECF figures to combine them with Scotland, Wales and (and I'm not sure how you do this one), Northern Ireland. :D
Of course things would be much simpler if the ECF moved into the modern world of 4 figure grades :lol:

NickFaulks
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:53 pm

Alex McFarlane wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:40 pm
I'm not sure how it is possible to duck the conversion question and still answer the question.
True, but it isn't an interesting question. All we would learn is that the ECF rations FIDE ratings by price.

Nick Grey
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Re: Average of all graded players in the UK

Post by Nick Grey » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:17 pm

:D The average of all graded players is probably a 50 year old male player with first name beginning with M or N. Possibly English.

ECF rates all games that qualify. Fide has some quirks with substantially stronger or weaker players than your rating. As for conversions I'm not that great believer in relevance when my statistical analysis has been affected by comparing catastrophies (Grenfell Tower 2017 & Aberfan 1966).

I'm not improving on the rating scale. I have forgotten far more opening, middlegame and ending theory than I have learnt recently.
Also been shocked to find some individuals have prepared against me which is probably far more dangerous for them when I struggle to remember what I played last week than last year or 5 or 10 years ago.

My strength is somewhere between 90-190 but could be worse or better than that in patches of a game.

I think there are more juniors now than in my day. Free or reduced entries etc. Whereas for some of us it came out of our pocket money or the 'jobs' we used to have. Let's not put too much pressure on them as Chess is not a great profession. But it is very addictive.

Comparing against German and Icelandic players is as futile as comparing the recent success of our younger English football teams and hoping they will be successful in the near or medium future for the national team.

Not much of a debate but let the Jan 2018 and latest fide list come out first.

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