Brian Valentine wrote:
The joiners are only so high because a significant proportion of them are overseas with a high grade. My guess is these go in at an estimate of their elo conversion (something I don't think has been discussed here).
In fact as far as I'm aware they are trundled through the estimation routine in the same way as a new junior. So the "joiners" average is conditional on whether events like the "Liverpools" or the Isle of Man run and the success or otherwise of Hastings, Gibraltar and other international events in attracting new players to these shores. Without proof I would make the assertion that the recursion is sound when used, in effect, at an event level but something destabilises it at a system level. No-one takes much notice of ECF grades for Nakaruma etc., but they never seemed to stand out as obviously wrong.
Brian Valentine wrote:You only need the numbers or the averages of these leavers and joiners to change slightly to start observing material inflation or deflation.
Last year there was a long thread about amongst other things the meaning and measurement of inflation. Most of the usual suspects participated. As part of that thread, the historic averages were unearthed and show remarkable stability (at around 115) from about 1994 onwards. At best you can only see a very slow downwards drift. The averages we really need are those before 1994. In particular there is debate in the late eighties about inflation and the average was quoted then to be about 125 to 130. So somewhere in the years where we have no recorded data, the average dropped dramatically. Was this the influx of new players in 1993 after KvS match? Was it the result of counties leaving the BCF when the BCF had a whip-round to pay for the 86 KvK match?
Brian Valentine wrote:in both lists: 8668 at 135.0 in 2008 increasing to 135.4
Last year, I looked at 2008 actual v 2007 actual - same idea survivors only. I think the averages were almost identical. You would have expected to see systemic deflation if the deflation theorists were to be believed.