MartinCarpenter wrote:Maybe quite a few - to be honest it would be amazing if the known, rather substantial, lagging junior FIDE grade effect wasn't having at least some deflationary effect around that level. It could easily be fairly large.
Even just random ECF/FIDE differences (quite large in general for obvious reasons) would create quite an overlap with the bottom ranges basically matches. (most opens >175 now iirc?).
Certainly there are players graded over 200 ECF who can get into Adam Raoof's under 2200 Hampstead/Golders Green tournaments.
Incidentally, I don't think that the 'lagging junior grade effect' is the only reason for deflation. I played at Golders Green this Saturday and one of my two wins was against an unrated opponent - and therefore it won't count for rating.
Of my most recent tournaments:-
Hampstead November 2013: 3 of 4 games counted, the fourth being a win for me
Hampstead October 2013: 3 of 4 games counted, the fourth being a win for me
Hampstead August 2013: 4 of 6 games counted, the fifth and sixth being a win and a draw for me.
Penarth July 2013: 7 of 9 games counted, the eighth and ninth being wins for me.
So in the last 6 months, 7 missing games from which I scored +6 =1 -0. That's not at all an untypical experience for me since I got my first elo rating in 2011. 7 games missing from 27 is a hefty chunk. Not surprising that elos and ECFs don't match up when a quarter of your games aren't counted.
. my elo started out touching 2050 and plummeted to barely above 1900 after which I (slowly) reclaimed about 30 points.
. while at the same time (from mostly the same games) my ECF remained largely static (and will rise by about 10 points in the new list).
Which is why the conversion table mentioned above in no way reflects my rating nor that of the people that I play.
From previous conversations I gather this experience is not typical of people who play mostly in 4NCL. Maybe the conversion table works better there.