new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

General discussions about ratings.
Richard James
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Richard James » Sun Sep 13, 2009 10:17 pm

Alex Holowczak wrote:Well, I scored 2/6 today, and I was just under the 150 boundary, but that was more to do with messing up openings as black... I wasn't losing because I was outplayed, just because I made mistakes rushing given it was a rapidplay. Was he outplayed, or did he just make mistakes?
I didn't see his last round game but in Rounds 1 and 2 he was outplayed while in Round 3 he blundered his queen. There's no way he's anywhere near 134 strength, though.

Matthew Turner
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Matthew Turner » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:04 am

I too was at Leamington. Brandon Clarke played pretty well (actually, I think he can play better), but it certainly seemed that 206 was about right.
I took 7 junior six of whom were graded here are their approximate result

U210
Grade Performance
166 169
164 129

U175
169 163
164 171

U150
123 137

U120
109 difficult to tell, because a lot of UG's, but 2/6 maybe 65

So in general, the grades for my lot were not too bad, but there are two further observations.
1. Looking at some other juniors in the Major/Challenges they looked fairly positionally inept and it seemed to be that their grades were forcing them into too high a section
2. I think this is first year none of Millfield Juniors has won a prize and I don't think many juniors featured on the prize list

Alex Holowczak
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Alex Holowczak » Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:50 am

I did my bit to improve the grade of the 123 in the U150 section for you... :oops:

Three juniors won prizes, Brandon Clarke of course, Philomena Lip was second (I think) in the U120, and Isaac Stables won the grading prize in in the U120. A junior would have finished third in the U175, but he decided to try for a win in a completely drawn position with 1 minute left on his clock (as opposed to 10 for his opponent), with inevitably disastrous consequences. Of the juniors who won prizes, they were among the top seeds in their section, so I think that Leamington Spa can be chalked up as a win for the new grading system.

For the junior who is 134 but played too few games, I think that's understandable. The fewer games you play, the less accurate the grade, because the algorithm involves finding the mean. Compared to Leamington Spa, he could be the exception, rather than the norm.

Richard James
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Richard James » Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:46 am

Junior prizewinners at Richmond:

Open: 1st Yang-Fan Zhou (207 standard)

Major (U170): 1st= Matthew Ward (151), Alexander Gordon-Brown (147) along with one adult
Grading (U150): Amy Hoare (143) along with one adult

Intermediate (U135): 1st Max Wood-Robinson (124), 2nd= Michael Pettit (118) along with Forum member Mike Gunn

Minor (U100): 2nd James Kerr (last published rapidplay grade 94 in 2006)
3rd= David Kerr (last published rapidplay grade 66 in 2006), Nicholas Stewart (68 standard) along with three adults
Grading (U80): Alex Blanc (69)

I saw the 134 player outside school this morning. He seemed OK and has brought his scorebook along so that I can go through his games with him.

I have two issues: a) the decision only to use results from the previous season for juniors and b) the iterative process or whatever it which results in players with high percentage scores getting too high a grade, as we saw with the London League player discussed elsewhere. It seems that a combination of these two factors have led to this boy getting a grade which is about 30-40 points too high. These issues have also been raised by Neill Cooper elsewhere.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Roger de Coverly » Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:07 am

Richard James wrote:It seems that a combination of these two factors have led to this boy getting a grade which is about 30-40 points too high.
There is also the effect that where you have a events with an almost closed pool of players such as local school or county competitions, the grades for all the participants who only play in the pool are determined exclusively by the results of the minority who play outside the pool against adults. As these may be the more motivated players, it's quite possible these will be "good" results which feed back to inflate their peers. Of course this feature has always been present but the now discarded anchor of using the previous season's grade helped prevent it getting out of control.

E Michael White
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by E Michael White » Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:55 am

Roger de Coverly wrote:now discarded anchor of using the previous season's grade helped prevent it getting out of control
..... and because all juniors are treated as new starters, which means these effects are much more likely to happen. A previously graded 16 year old may have a single good result which can now boost the grades of many other juniors in the 8-16 age range.

Sean Hewitt

Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Sean Hewitt » Fri Oct 09, 2009 12:56 pm

Hopefully, this might put the topic title to bed.

Brandon played the Leicester Open at the weekend. He scored 3.5/5 for a grading performance of....217

Ian Kingston
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Ian Kingston » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:05 pm

On top of a 220-ish performance in the Isle of Man Open, which included a draw against GM Piotr Bobras. Can't be more precise than that, because Bobras doesn't have an ECF grade. His rating is 2537.

Paul McKeown
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Paul McKeown » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:07 pm

Sean Hewitt wrote:Hopefully, this might put the topic title to bed.

Brandon played the Leicester Open at the weekend. He scored 3.5/5 for a grading performance of....217
A 5 round grading performance is regarded as a clinching argument?

No wonder the grading system is tanked.
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Sean Hewitt

Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Sean Hewitt » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:14 pm

Paul McKeown wrote: A 5 round grading performance is regarded as a clinching argument?
On top of all the other evidence? YES!!

Paul McKeown
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Paul McKeown » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:15 pm

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Roger de Coverly
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Roger de Coverly » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:54 pm

Sean Hewitt wrote:Brandon played the Leicester Open at the weekend. He scored 3.5/5 for a grading performance of....217
The cross table implies he got a half point bye in round 1 so it was 3/4.

I don't actually think you know his grading performance (and no one will until next July) as he played at least one other junior. Those he played don't know their grading performance either.

Ian Kingston
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Ian Kingston » Fri Oct 09, 2009 2:13 pm

Let it go, people. Brandon Clarke may not be the next Magnus Carlsen, but there's nothing wrong with his grade.

Unless, perhaps, it's too low.

Sean Hewitt

Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Sean Hewitt » Fri Oct 09, 2009 6:07 pm

Ian Kingston wrote:Let it go, people. Brandon Clarke may not be the next Magnus Carlsen, but there's nothing wrong with his grade.

Unless, perhaps, it's too low.
Hear hear!

Mike Truran
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Re: new grades wow brandon clarke shot up 206

Post by Mike Truran » Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:05 pm

I may not be the world's greatest player, but I am (and have been for many years) playing around 190-200 strength. I have rarely been as impressed by a player as when I was wiped off the board by Brandon in short order at a recent rapidplay tournament. From what I saw, I have absolutely no problem with his grade.

I may not be as sharp as I was, but I can still recognise a real talent when I see it.