British Championship 2023

[LawrenceCooper]

By my calculations (which are as of now still unofficial), these are the norm chances before the start of round 8 (I may have missed someone out from this list):

Can afford to draw or lose today:
Villiers (IM) - needs 1.5/2 if he plays a 2251+ tomorrow, and 1/2 if he plays Adams tomorrow
Yao (WGM) - needs 1.5/2 if she plays a 2383+ tomorrow, and 2/2 if she plays a 1978+ tomorrow
Smith (WIM) - needs 1/2 and must play either Eldar Gasanov or Tarun Kanyamarala tomorrow

Must win today:
Claridge-Hansen (IM) - needs 2/2 unless he plays Adams tomorrow, in which case 1.5/2 is enough (but will almost certainly need to win to be paired with him)
Derakhshani (IM) - needs 2/2 and must play a 2483+ tomorrow
Toma (IM) - needs 2/2 and a 2509+ tomorrow
Jones (IM) - needs 2/2 and a 2306+ tomorrow
Yao (IM) - 2/2 playing a 2378+ tomorrow

No chance:
Willow (GM) & Wadsworth (GM) - cannot reach minimum ARO
Grieve (GM) - cannot reach required TPR with 2/2 (needs 2.5)
Han (IM) - will not reach 5 titled opponents (CMs do not count for norms)
Volovich (WIM) - will not reach 3 opponents with WIM titles or above

Wow, that is a comprehensive list!

[Andy Stoker]

I hope Adams slaps him around.

That seems a very unpleasant comment - would you consider deleting it?

[Graham Borrowdale]

Any predictions for today? I know the top 2 boards are probably of most interest to most people, but I have included board 3:

Han 0-1 Adams
Grieve 0-1 Fernandez
Pert,N 1-0 Derakhshani

[Paul Cooksey]

I'm on 1/6 so far, but enjoy the game:
Han 0-1 Adams
Grieve 1-0 Fernandez
Pert,N 1-0 Derakhshani

[Mark Howitt]

I hope Adams slaps him around.

That seems a very unpleasant comment - would you consider deleting it?

No.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Any predictions for today? I know the top 2 boards are probably of most interest to most people, but I have included board 3:

Han 0-1 Adams
Grieve 0-1 Fernandez
Pert,N 1-0 Derakhshani

Agreed

[Jonathan Rogers]

Thanks to Thomas Evans for the list. It seems that Lan Yao and Tom Villiers have real chances, though Tom (whom we welcome to the forum) could have expected an easier pairing in round eight.

Generally the point remains; the British is not especially suited to producing norms, and this was so even before rating deflation (it was perhaps worse in the days or ten years or so, when the 2200s-2400s were virtually altogether absent, however it is not much better now that those "new" players between 2250-2350 were the same players who used to be over 2400!)

[Jonathan Rogers]

Interesting as ever to read Leonard's views, and reasons for giving Yichen Han a sporting chance. My only minor comment is that we should not give too much weight to drawing with Adams online - Adams, when playing classical chess online, always seemed to be "half the player", I suspect because his concentration was affected (and concentration is a particular strength of his when playing over the board).

[Jonathan Rogers]

Adams appears to have offered a draw in a more pleasant position. Presumably there is some unusual explanation (other than that Fernandez does not look very likely to win either; slightly strange choice of opening there).

[NickFaulks]

Shades of Petrosian - when Mickey wishes to draw, there is no power on Earth that can make him win.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Seems Harry (Grieve) is going to beat Dan (Fernandez)!

[Jonathan Rogers]

er, let's wait to see whether he actually plays Qxf4, I can see plausible looking resources, and if Grieve sees them too ...

[Jonathan Rogers]

Ah, I've now got it - 34 Qxf5 Bxe5 35 Qh6 Nh7 should be met by 36 Rf6! But that seems to be the only clear win; and, unless it is seen quickly, you can see why it is therefore harder for a human to hurry to play down this line.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I now see that something like that already happened - but chess 24 sometimes needs to be refreshed for me.

Well, Adams' early draw offer probably won't cost him then, but an explanation would still be of interest.

[Jonathan Rogers]

Assuming that Willow wins, it seems that he will play Adams tomorrow, everyone else who may be on 5.5 having already done so (including Steven Jones, who played him in the first round (!))