World Championship Predictions

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Joshua Gibbs
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World Championship Predictions

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:14 am

I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
Chess, translation, dealing with the police, programming and almost getting killed or arrested: http://honyakujoshua.blogspot.co.uk/

Graham Borrowdale
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Graham Borrowdale » Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:55 am

Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
That is a very bold prediction, although Kramnik's victory over Kasparov showed us that the unexpected can sometimes happen, even in matches. For my money, Carlsen will win, by maybe 6-4.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:04 am

Graham Borrowdale wrote: For my money, Carlsen will win, by maybe 6-4.
It's 12 games, so a "plus 2" win is 6½-4½. They wouldn't play the twelfth game avoiding disputes about whether it should be rated.

I agree also that Carlsen is that little bit stronger.

Brian Towers
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Brian Towers » Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:36 pm

Roger de Coverly wrote:It's 12 games, so a "plus 2" win is 6½-4½. They wouldn't play the twelfth game avoiding disputes about whether it should be rated.
Wrong, Roger.

It might end 6½-4½. It might also end 7-5 having been 6-5 with one to play.
However you are right to point out that it can't end 6-4.
Ah, but I was so much older then. I'm younger than that now.

Graham Borrowdale
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Graham Borrowdale » Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:57 pm

Sorry, my mistake, I was assuming that Carlsen would retain the title at 6-4, but he needs to win the match to retain the title. In which case I think 7-4 is a more likely result.

Nick Burrows
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Nick Burrows » Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:28 pm

Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?

MartinCarpenter
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by MartinCarpenter » Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:38 pm

There's no great reason to expect it, but he does clearly have enormous reserves of mental strength (as per that K/O tournament he won!). That matters an awful lot for these things, so it could be tougher than you'd think.

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Joshua Gibbs
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Joshua Gibbs » Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:50 pm

Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?
just basically the fact that he won the candidates and he has stamina...
Chess, translation, dealing with the police, programming and almost getting killed or arrested: http://honyakujoshua.blogspot.co.uk/

Nick Burrows
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Nick Burrows » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:36 pm

Joshua Gibbs wrote:
Nick Burrows wrote:
Joshua Gibbs wrote:I think Karjakin will win it. What does everyone else think?
What makes you think Karjakin will beat a better player whom he has a poor record against?
just basically the fact that he won the candidates and he has stamina...
Carlsen has stamina too, so I wouldn't say it is an advantage. Karjakin has beaten him just once in 20 games and his style is too similar to cause many problems imo.

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JustinHorton
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:36 pm

Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
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Kevin O'Rourke
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Kevin O'Rourke » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:41 pm

when is game 1 starting?

Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?

NickFaulks
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by NickFaulks » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:42 pm

JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
They're the market leaders. Russian, but I've found them to be fine.

Roger de Coverly
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by Roger de Coverly » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:52 pm

Kevin O'Rourke wrote: Agreed draws are not permitted before move 30 with the exception of 3 fold rep. Is this a normal rule?
That rule or similar has been around for some years imposed on some events. It was originally the Bulgarians who promoted it, so it's sometimes described as Sofia rules.

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JustinHorton
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by JustinHorton » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:53 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
JustinHorton wrote:Magnus 7/1 on with Marathon Bet, whoever they may be
They're the market leaders. Russian, but I've found them to be fine.
I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

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NickFaulks
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Re: World Championship Predictions

Post by NickFaulks » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:56 pm

JustinHorton wrote: I shall not be testing that proposition on those odds
The odds have clearly been driven down to that level. I think it's madness, took a bit the other way.

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