David Robertson wrote:I've not (yet) seen the email (from 4NCL). But I think it is poor advice. From what I've been reading today, albeit from an inexpert but informed and intelligent assessment, I think ECF and other chess authorities should act in advance of Government guidance and advise an immediate suspension of all chess activity
My reasons?
* chess is uniquely (specially?) exposed to limits on social distancing. We play within 0.5 metres of each other, face-to-face; share cross-infecting pieces
* chess requires us to spend 3-7 hours in close confinement
* chess community has a well-above average 'at-risk' demographic
Government guidance will apply soberly to all activities. It cannot possibly anticipate the particular and peculiar activities of chess. Hence, our authorities CANNOT wait. We must act, even over-react, in advance rather than wait for a general shut-down
Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I'm opening a separate thread to the ongoing Coronavirus thread because I don't want my case to be lost in a general discussion. As I explain below. we need to act quickly, immediately, and specifically with regard to our community. We need to suspend all chess activity. Within ten days. most gatherings will be closed, I'd guess. We should act more swiftly given our circumstances
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
The PM press conference tomorrow will be big news. Will it be closure of schools, working from home and postponement or cancellation of all large sporting events? Italy today closed all shops in the country apart from food shops and pharmacies. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that!
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I guess I agree with this, but the other issue at play is whether or not this virus will burn out. if say 10,000 people in this country get it then it's worth trying to avoid it, but if the experts are saying that 70-80 percent of us will get it, then is this just not delaying the inevitable?
I'm also concerned about coronavirus as I have asthma, although my breathing is better than it was a few years ago.
I'm also concerned about coronavirus as I have asthma, although my breathing is better than it was a few years ago.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I know what you mean with the asthma. Mine is very mild but chest colds really linger and the asthma gets noticeably worse. I think you’re probably right, but I suppose the delay phase will try to push the peak of the outbreak into the summer months, where in theory it may die off a bit like seasonal flu. Although the expectation is probably it will be back with full-force come winter. Hopefully at some point in the next 12 months there will be a vaccine.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
If 10-12 people gathering in a pub for a chess match is an unacceptable coronavirus risk, then the pub would not be allowed to stay open, lest the same 10-12 people gather in it for purposes unrelated to chess.
If you aren't qualified to second-guess the advice of government epidemiologists, then don't.
If you aren't qualified to second-guess the advice of government epidemiologists, then don't.
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Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Is the “3-7 hours” angle actually that relevant? If one person is infected and the other isn’t then it appears that it takes very little contact for one to infect the other. Is spending 3-7 hours opposite them actually any more significantly risky than spending 10 minutes with someone? Genuine question.
Of course if neither have it then there is no risk at all (And on the numbers so far you are still going to be statistically extremely unlucky to be sitting opposite an infected individual. Especially an asymptomatic infected person who might otherwise self isolate as a precaution.
Sensible to avoid too much social mixing though.
Of course if neither have it then there is no risk at all (And on the numbers so far you are still going to be statistically extremely unlucky to be sitting opposite an infected individual. Especially an asymptomatic infected person who might otherwise self isolate as a precaution.
Sensible to avoid too much social mixing though.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
There are armchair experts all over social media declaring that we must act yesterday to take various measures to prevent the spread of the virus. But the point about the more extreme measures is that they all come with their own negative consequences for people’s lives and livelihoods, and as such cannot be made lightly or indefinitely. Once put in place they will subsequently have to be loosened. Put them in place too early and it becomes very difficult to loosen them without very rapidly having to reinstate. Leave it too late, and you lose control.
Personally I think we’ve just got to trust the Govt and their advisers to get it right. And hope they do. Nobody envies their job. That’s not to say individuals can’t take their own decisions where possible for their own circumstances.
Personally I think we’ve just got to trust the Govt and their advisers to get it right. And hope they do. Nobody envies their job. That’s not to say individuals can’t take their own decisions where possible for their own circumstances.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Daniel Gormally wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:48 pmI guess I agree with this, but the other issue at play is whether or not this virus will burn out. if say 10,000 people in this country get it then it's worth trying to avoid it, but if the experts are saying that 70-80 percent of us will get it, then is this just not delaying the inevitable?
Flattening the curveWhat's the point of fighting something that's bound to happen anyway? Why not just let the epidemic run its course?
Me too, and during the last few winters I've coughed and spluttered for months. Thankfully I've got past that, this time around, or I think I might be a good deal nervous than I am.Daniel Gormally wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:48 pm?
I'm also concerned about coronavirus as I have asthma, although my breathing is better than it was a few years ago.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I think we can be pretty sure a lot more people have it than is currently been reported, after all they have only tested a small percentage of the population. unless the government has psychic abilities we aren't aware of.Richard Bates wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:46 amIs the “3-7 hours” angle actually that relevant? If one person is infected and the other isn’t then it appears that it takes very little contact for one to infect the other. Is spending 3-7 hours opposite them actually any more significantly risky than spending 10 minutes with someone? Genuine question.
Of course if neither have it then there is no risk at all (And on the numbers so far you are still going to be statistically extremely unlucky to be sitting opposite an infected individual. Especially an asymptomatic infected person who might otherwise self isolate as a precaution.
Sensible to avoid too much social mixing though.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
"I think we can be pretty sure a lot more people have it than is currently been reported, after all they have only tested a small percentage of the population. unless the government has psychic abilities we aren't aware of."
And that will remain the case - some people will have the symptoms and retire to bed for a few days and hopefully get better. They won't get tested. A few will die, and they won't get tested either, especially if they have underlying medical conditions. So any published figures will be misleading, and not for sinister reasons. I think that only about 1 % of those tested were positive (at the time of the test...) Obviously, its understandable that people want to get tested.
"Hopefully at some point in the next 12 months there will be a vaccine."
I'm sure there's a number of teams working on this right now, same as with any flu-type virus. It needs to be tested before use.
"I suppose the delay phase will try to push the peak of the outbreak into the summer months, where in theory it may die off a bit like seasonal flu. "
Probably - there's a theory that the virus doesn't like hot weather, but the theory might derive from what normal flu does...
And that will remain the case - some people will have the symptoms and retire to bed for a few days and hopefully get better. They won't get tested. A few will die, and they won't get tested either, especially if they have underlying medical conditions. So any published figures will be misleading, and not for sinister reasons. I think that only about 1 % of those tested were positive (at the time of the test...) Obviously, its understandable that people want to get tested.
"Hopefully at some point in the next 12 months there will be a vaccine."
I'm sure there's a number of teams working on this right now, same as with any flu-type virus. It needs to be tested before use.
"I suppose the delay phase will try to push the peak of the outbreak into the summer months, where in theory it may die off a bit like seasonal flu. "
Probably - there's a theory that the virus doesn't like hot weather, but the theory might derive from what normal flu does...
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
If that's the case, it's good news. It means the 8 people who have died are a smaller percentage of the total cases. In other words, the virus is less likely to kill you than we thought. Possibly no more likely than seasonal flu.Daniel Gormally wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:20 amI think we can be pretty sure a lot more people have it than is currently been reported, after all they have only tested a small percentage of the population. unless the government has psychic abilities we aren't aware of.
The NHS, even when berating us for not taking seasonal flu seriously enough, has never advised us to cancel chess lest we catch it.
Donate to Sabrina's fundraiser at https://gofund.me/aeae42c7 to support victims of sexual abuse in the chess world.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
David. A simple solution is that you can, as an individual, self isolate from taking part in any chess activity you wish.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Well yes, as long as we personally abstain from situations of risk, everything will be all right, won't it?Ihor Lewyk wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:37 amDavid. A simple solution is that you can, as an individual, self isolate from taking part in any chess activity you wish.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."
lostontime.blogspot.com
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Sums up my view. I am not a slavish follower of "expert" advice, but on this occasion it looks ok.Chris Goodall wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:17 amIf you aren't qualified to second-guess the advice of government epidemiologists, then don't.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a QR code stamped on a human face — forever.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Yes. Yes it will. How else do you suppose you're still alive?JustinHorton wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:48 amWell yes, as long as we personally abstain from situations of risk, everything will be all right, won't it?
Donate to Sabrina's fundraiser at https://gofund.me/aeae42c7 to support victims of sexual abuse in the chess world.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.