Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately

[Daniel Gormally]

Government advice is not to close schools and to carry on as relatively normal, but that might change in a couple of weeks.

[NickFaulks]

The fallback position seems to be "if we're all going to get it, let's make sure we don't all get it at once". Sounds like a plan to me, even if needs to be put into practice with great precision.

I'm willing to listen to the epidemiologists until it becomes clear that they have been politically captured - as it has long appeared that WHO has been.

[Martin Benjamin]

There are armchair experts all over social media declaring that we must act yesterday to take various measures to prevent the spread of the virus. But the point about the more extreme measures is that they all come with their own negative consequences for people’s lives and livelihoods, and as such cannot be made lightly or indefinitely. Once put in place they will subsequently have to be loosened. Put them in place too early and it becomes very difficult to loosen them without very rapidly having to reinstate. Leave it too late, and you lose control.

Personally I think we’ve just got to trust the Govt and their advisers to get it right. And hope they do. Nobody envies their job. That’s not to say individuals can’t take their own decisions where possible for their own circumstances.

Richard is right to mention the negative consequences of putting extreme measures into action. A lockdown like Italy's results in hidden health tragedies (e.g. the frail dying at home isolated, undiagnosed and untreated, a shortage of hospital staff available to work because they have to stay at home to look after children when schools are closed resulting in inadequate treatment for those sufferers who are hospitalised), let alone the drastic effect on the mental health of the lonely, on those who have devoted their lives to starting and running a small business which goes to the wall and on which entire families depended, and on those who are casually employed and can't take two weeks or longer off unpaid. It is easy to tweet #cancel everything, much more difficult to think about the consequences and weigh them to come to the "right" decision.

To take what seems at first like a straightforward case (David R's opening point about suspending chess activity), it seems easy and right to make the case that if prevents just one Covid-19 related death, all chess activity should stop. However, at what stage do you stop making the same argument for suspending chess or any other activity for an indeterminate period in order to prevent the spread of other common illnesses which could be fatal to a small percentage who catch them? Instinctively, I probably side with David that now is the time to call a temporary halt to chess competitions, if only because so many people are (rightly or wrongly) spooked about the current risk, but decisions like this are not as easy as most of the #cancel everything tweeting brigade think (not saying David R is one of the these, and I am sure he had already weighed the arguments in his mind).

[JustinHorton]

. However, at what stage do you stop making the same argument for suspending chess or any other activity for an indeterminate period in order to prevent the spread of other common illnesses

Maybe we start making that argument when there's a pandemic of one of them and we haven't got a vaccine.

[NickFaulks]

Instinctively, I probably side with David that now is the time to call a temporary halt to chess competitions

That may be wrong. Most of us go into voluntary isolation while the virus rumbles along, but eventually we have to come out of hiding and then we all get it. Epidemiology is complicated and can give counterintuitive results.

[Martin Benjamin]

Instinctively, I probably side with David that now is the time to call a temporary halt to chess competitions

That may be wrong. Most of us go into voluntary isolation while the virus rumbles along, but eventually we have to come out of hiding and then we all get it. Epidemiology is complicated and can give counterintuitive results.

I acknowledge that I could well be wrong. It is a judgement call. Last night at a London League match, I was off the mindset that the show should go on, whereas today I have changed my mind. Maybe tomorrow I shall change it again, but ultimately it does not matter a hill of beans what I think. If the leagues keep going, I am likely to keep turning up (or at least the risk of catching coronavirus won't be the reason for me being unable to play in a particular match).

[NickFaulks]

Meanwhile, I have just received another clueless piece of garbage from the ACP. They must be desperate to appear relevant.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Personally I think we’ve just got to trust the Govt and their advisers to get it right. And hope they do. Nobody envies their job. That’s not to say individuals can’t take their own decisions where possible for their own circumstances.

Their advisers, perhaps.

But with a government "source" chuntering on this morning about "herd immunity"* maybe its a bit more difficult with BoJo and co.

(*which would likely, if done on a "laissez-faire" basis, mean over a million dead)

[NickFaulks]

(*which would likely, if done on a "laissez-faire" basis, mean over a million dead)

A very intriguing figure. I'm sure we would all like you to share the details backing it up.

[Chris Goodall]

. However, at what stage do you stop making the same argument for suspending chess or any other activity for an indeterminate period in order to prevent the spread of other common illnesses

Maybe we start making that argument when there's a pandemic of one of them and we haven't got a vaccine.

Swine flu was a pandemic and we hadn't got a vaccine. It's just a word.

[David Robertson]

ACP takes a view. I was unaware of this when posting above. It only addresses 'professionals' though. Doubtless one or two on here will argue it doesn't apply to 'amateurs'

[Kevin Thurlow]

The trouble with scientific advice to any Government is that you (frequently at an early stage) talk to non-scientists, and the message then gets garbled, and policy becomes more important than science, as they will want to continue their policy. Sometimes the advisor has an axe to grind as well (thinking more of drug/"novel psycho-active substances" legislation, than the current issue.)

With the current Government, you have a science minister who has spent 15 years in HR, and Jeremy Hunt was Health Minister for many years, but believed in homoeopathy. I'm not saying Labour were any better!

It is clear also with this current problem that various medical people have widely differing views about what to do.

[JustinHorton]

(*which would likely, if done on a "laissez-faire" basis, mean over a million dead)

A very intriguing figure. I'm sure we would all like you to share the details backing it up.

My understanding is that people are assuming that for "herd immunity" to work, a very large proportion of the population would need to be infected, then taking the reported death rates and seeing what figure results.

(I merely report here, rather than judge.)

[Martin Crichton]

The UK is approx 8 days behind Italy with Corona Virus. You can check the interactive map here:
https://vdata.nikkei.com/en/newsgraphic ... world-map/

So that is a pretty accurate indication of where things are going. Some really silly comments have been posted in the other thread on coronavirus...e.g. comparing it with the the Flu.

WHO facts...0.1% mortality rate for the Flu - Flu jab available
3.4% mortality rate for Covid 19 - no known cure.

The 1918 Flu pandemic (which had no cure at the time) came in 3 waves and wiped out approx 2.5% of the worlds population.

We are currently at the beginning of the first wave in my opinion...these strains are known to mutate so further strains are likely.

I agree that chess matches should be suspended immediately. There is always internet chess until this pandemic blows over.

For the record I believe that the UK will be on its knees within 2 weeks. I travelled on the London Underground this am (unfortunately a neccessary trip) and only came across 2 other people besides myself (from 10's of thousands) that were wearing face masks. I did get a few stares and glances....I thought to myself at those people....oh...so you think I am protecting myself from infection?....hmmm....think again...maybe I am actually protecting you! The masses are oblivious to what is coming.

not been tested yet but this is day 11 from quite a nasty viral infection and cough that I had....nearing the end of it now....but one other thought.... I imagine that like a cold or flu that you can certainly get infected more than once!

[JustinHorton]

Anyway Pedro Sánchez has just said that the Ministry of Health here will recommend that all the country's schools are closed, so it looks like I won't be working for a while.