Bill knows and Lara the arbiter. I’m not sure if we will stay in the list or not.Roger de Coverly wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:02 pmThe tournament data is up the chess-results serverMatt Bridgeman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:54 pmKind of feeling a little better about withdrawing from Blackpool right around now.
http://chess-results.com/tnr524726.aspx?lan=1&art=0
It's not completely reliable as to who is taking part, given that you and your daughter are still included. Late withdrawals are sometimes handled by leaving players in the list and setting all their results to "not paired".
Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
London Marathon is gone. Probably a fairly obvious one for the chop when you think about it.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Jupiter called, they asked if you've finished using their third moon as a head.David Robertson wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pmWhy would anyone believe The Lancet when, in here, we have a clown from Newcastle and another from Surbiton telling us otherwise?Angus French wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pmReal mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Looking at the Lancet article, the authors acknowledge one problem with the data, and then set about solving a different one.
"There's a hidden variable, which is the number of unconfirmed infections. We have no idea how to estimate that. Let's build the incubation time, which is totally independent of the number of unconfirmed infections, into the formula, and declare that an improvement."
Donate to Sabrina's fundraiser at https://gofund.me/aeae42c7 to support victims of sexual abuse in the chess world.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I wonder how this tallies with the chief medical officer suggesting a worst case scenario of 80% infection with a 1% mortality rate?Angus French wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pmReal mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
I wonder whether the assessment of the chief medical officer tallies with any data released to date, most of which seems to put the figure closer to 4%, or with any expert?
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Trust the chief medical officer. The Lancet methodology is guaranteed to over-estimate the mortality rate of a spreading disease, and under-estimate the mortality rate of a contracting one. They even say so.Nick Burrows wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:47 pmI wonder how this tallies with the chief medical officer suggesting a worst case scenario of 80% infection with a 1% mortality rate?Angus French wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pmReal mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Donate to Sabrina's fundraiser at https://gofund.me/aeae42c7 to support victims of sexual abuse in the chess world.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
Northumberland webmaster, Jesmond CC something-or-other. Views mine. Definitely below the Goodall Line.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Frankly, I am not sure how much reliance can be placed on this article (letter?) in The Lancet. The figures they quote are 5.6% within China (which is the figure to which Angus refers) but 15.2% outside China. That seems to be inherently unlikely on the basis of the figures that we can currently see. But I am neither a medical professional (let alone an epidemiologist) nor a statistician.Chris Goodall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:28 pmJupiter called, they asked if you've finished using their third moon as a head.David Robertson wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pmWhy would anyone believe The Lancet when, in here, we have a clown from Newcastle and another from Surbiton telling us otherwise?Angus French wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:34 pmReal mortality rate for clinically apparent COVID-19 cases estimated to be around 5.7%. Article in The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... X/fulltext
Looking at the Lancet article, the authors acknowledge one problem with the data, and then set about solving a different one.
"There's a hidden variable, which is the number of unconfirmed infections. We have no idea how to estimate that. Let's build the incubation time, which is totally independent of the number of unconfirmed infections, into the formula, and declare that an improvement."
But then there are a great many experts already pontificating on here.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Jersey gone. Even if we don't die of coronavirus, I predict that most professional chess players will die of boredom at a lack of things to do, at this rate.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Candidates will be performing a public service in their isolation. Maybe they’ll be able to carry on for months.Daniel Gormally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:49 pmJersey gone. Even if we don't die of coronavirus, I predict that most professional chess players will die of boredom at a lack of things to do, at this rate.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
"Candidates will be performing a public service in their isolation. Maybe they’ll be able to carry on for months."
Change the schedule to an old-style Candidates, like the 1959 and 1962 versions? (8-player quadruple round, for the younger readers.)
Change the schedule to an old-style Candidates, like the 1959 and 1962 versions? (8-player quadruple round, for the younger readers.)
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
The Hampstead FIDE weekend event cancelled due to loss of the venue due to Coronavirus fears.
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Due to the current pandemic, venues are cancelling events - so for the moment Hampstead Congress, Muswell Hill and Hendon Blitz are on hold and we will not be taking entries until the situation has settled down. This may take some months. Kingston Rapid is on hold. Jersey Festival and Southend have cancelled for 2020. The next Golders Green Rapid is scheduled for May 2 and I will make a decision about that event nearer the time. I look forward to seeing you at an event soon!Matt Bridgeman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:26 pmThe Hampstead FIDE weekend event cancelled due to loss of the venue due to Coronavirus fears.
Adam Raoof IA, IO
Chess England Events - https://chessengland.com/
The Chess Circuit - https://chesscircuit.substack.com/
Don’t stop playing chess!
Chess England Events - https://chessengland.com/
The Chess Circuit - https://chesscircuit.substack.com/
Don’t stop playing chess!
Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
The Big Shutdown arrives
Johnson tonight has U-turned, and will announce a ban on 'mass gatherings' starting next week; Govt compo fund to be declared. No details yet of 'mass'. But I'd guess 4NCL will qualify. Of leagues, no idea. You know my view; I've little more to add. Suspend all play to protect our vulnerable colleagues
Total isolation of elderly likely to follow soon
AND (shakes head in astonishment/despair/incredulity)....
Emergency legislation granting unprecedented (quasi-fascist) powers of intrusion into citizens' lives; reduced care standards for the elderly; and provisions in the event of funeral services being overwhelmed
Johnson tonight has U-turned, and will announce a ban on 'mass gatherings' starting next week; Govt compo fund to be declared. No details yet of 'mass'. But I'd guess 4NCL will qualify. Of leagues, no idea. You know my view; I've little more to add. Suspend all play to protect our vulnerable colleagues
Total isolation of elderly likely to follow soon
AND (shakes head in astonishment/despair/incredulity)....
Emergency legislation granting unprecedented (quasi-fascist) powers of intrusion into citizens' lives; reduced care standards for the elderly; and provisions in the event of funeral services being overwhelmed
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
Also reportedly powers to force schools to *stay open*, rather than the opposite. What?
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)
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Re: Covid-19 - Suspend Chess Immediately
The thing I find hard to visualise here is the end game. Under what circumstances do things start up again? The virus is surely never going to disappear completely. If you've never had it you're always going to be vulnerable to it, and there will always be people out there you can catch it off. There's definitely a part of me that thinks I'd rather get it now when I'm fit and healthy, rather than have it hanging over me as my health declines.