Worrying times

[Kevin Thurlow]

"Perhaps the Extra deaths are from other causes such as not having GP and Nursing treatment or day surgery treatment for the last 4 weeks."

Possibly, I was summoned for a routine blood test a couple of weeks ago. The local surgery has closed indefinitely, so I had a half-hour drive to its sister surgery, where the armour-plated nurse carried out the test and said half the staff were out as they had someone symptomatic at home. I went for another one last week, and they only seemed to be doing nurse-like things. This time I was told there were no positive Covid-19 cases in the area. (Maybe the medical staff are working in various hospitals). Just to really cheer everyone up, a doctor friend says that people are going to hospital with heart problems, strokes etc., and then they get the virus whilst in hospital... Maybe they should try to divert all Covid-19 patients to the "Nightingale" hospitals and keep a hospital free for other patients (as far as possible)?

[NickFaulks]

Just to really cheer everyone up, a doctor friend says that people are going to hospital with heart problems, strokes etc., and then they get the virus whilst in hospital...

That has been a popular mode of death for years, doesn't have to be this virus.

[David Sedgwick]

I was summoned for a routine blood test a couple of weeks ago.

I doubt that that would have happened anywhere in London. I have had two such appointments postponed indefinitely.

[Matthew Turner]

An interesting interview about Sweden’s approach to coronavirus
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-ep ... om-sweden/

[Daniel Gormally]

An interesting interview about Sweden’s approach to coronavirus
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-ep ... om-sweden/

the expert looks like roger emerson!

[NickFaulks]

I watched that this morning, and was not surprised to find that I agreed with everything he said ( with one exception ).

I have to say that I find his thesis, that a year from now we shall discover that similar countries have experienced similar numbers of coronavirus deaths per million of population, quite convincing. The distinction will be the amount of collateral damage along the way. A different result can be achieved only by staying locked down until a reliable vaccine is developed, and that isn't going to happen.

[Gerard Killoran]

A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu,

Really?

Sweden.jpg

From The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”
Apr 17, 2020
Hans Bergstrom

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... om-2020-04

[John Clarke]

Figures for NZ:
Population 5 million
Deaths 11
Deaths/million 2.2

Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation. (According to the Guardian's infection map, Greenland hasn't been hit at all yet.) But things mightn't ultimately be as rosy as those stats would seem to suggest. The real tests, as elsewhere, will come with how and when to ease the lock-down, and whether the economy can recover. NZ is going for total eradication of the virus. Might be achievable, but keeping it that way is another matter. Severe border restrictions and precautions would be necessary for an indefinite period; both would considerably inhibit the trade we depend on.

[Matt Mackenzie]

Figures for NZ:
Population 5 million
Deaths 11
Deaths/million 2.2

Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation. (According to the Guardian's infection map, Greenland hasn't been hit at all yet.) But things mightn't ultimately be as rosy as those stats would seem to suggest. The real tests, as elsewhere, will come with how and when to ease the lock-down, and whether the economy can recover. NZ is going for total eradication of the virus. Might be achievable, but keeping it that way is another matter. Severe border restrictions and precautions would be necessary for an indefinite period; both would considerably inhibit the trade we depend on.

According to Wikipedia's, it has. Still some Pacific microstates without any cases, though.

[NickFaulks]

Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation.

And one which is heading into winter as we are heading out of it - there is no evidence yet, but given that this thing is apparently a nasty variant of the common cold that does feel like a factor.

If the Kiwis I have known over the years are any guide, they will find being confined within their own borders quite vexing, and many will be ready to take their chances in the outside world well before it is virus-free.

[Michael Farthing]

A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.

That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.

[Daniel Gormally]

I've read that herd immunity won't be achieved with this thing until we get about eight waves of the virus. not sure that's true though.

let's face it we don't really know anything about the virus. the different haphazard responses by governments has shown as much. we are all learning on the go

[JustinHorton]

A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.

That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.

It's not a point much shared elsewhere though, and if it depends on the true infection rate being much much higher than most other authorities believe, then he really needs to be right and everybody else wrong.

[NickFaulks]

I've read that herd immunity won't be achieved with this thing until we get about eight waves of the virus. not sure that's true though.

I saw that, can't remember where now. As often happens, the sums looked ok but at some point there was a leap of logic which I couldn't follow.

[Gerard Killoran]

A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.

To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.

That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.

This is precisely why his point is wrong. Without the lockdown, the number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths would not be peaking but still rising exponentially. We would have far, far more than 40,000 deaths. If the lockdown had no effect then we must have already reached 'Herd immunity and AT LEAST 60% of the population infected for these numbers to be levelling off and be hitting the 40,000 target. Does anyone believe this? The Swedes calculate the 0.1% death rate by assuming a very high infection rate, for which they have no evidence. It is at best a guesstimate.