2010 Grading list

[Michele Clack]

Does anyone know when the new grading list is due out?

[Alex Holowczak]

The grading list is nearly always out around the time of the British Championship, so about a fortnight's time. Direct members have had their provisional grading results sent to them already.

If you e-mail Richard Haddrell: [email protected] - he might be able to give a more specific date. He might even read this question and comment here. However, I fear he may get similar e-mails 100 times a day...

[Carl Hibbard]

No sign of the data for me to upload yet, however as Alex has pointed out sometime for the British is usually the plan

[Sean Hewitt]

Why do we get this question, together with the same answer, every single year?!

[Carl Hibbard]

Why do we get this question, together with the same answer, every single year?!

I have considered docking 10 points off everyone who asks before I publish to the web site

But the printed list still exists and Richard would have me shot at dawn

[Kidge Elder]

Why don't the ECF have a note on their front page giving a date for the new grades?

[Carl Hibbard]

Why don't the ECF have a note on their front page giving a date for the new grades?

The date has not yet been decided on, plus there will be some delay on me promoting it to the grading website

I am expecting it to be Saturday, 24th

[Alexander Hardwick]

Saturday the 24th...right, that can go in my calendar, along with the Ealing Rapidplay on the same day (how will I be able to concentrate on my games?!)

Of course, now that I know an expected date, it will stop me from getting excited every time I see that a new post has gone up in the Grading Debate section.

[Carl Hibbard]

Of course, now that I know a definite date, it will stop me from getting excited every time I see that a new post has gone up in the Grading Debate section.

No definite date was mentioned

[Alexander Hardwick]

Of course, now that I know a definite date, it will stop me from getting excited every time I see that a new post has gone up in the Grading Debate section.

No definite date was mentioned

Good point. Apologies. I was really trying to express the fact that a specific date was given; I am aware that it wasn't definite. The edit function is a wonderful thing.

[Sean Hewitt]

I thought that I would do a little work on the provisional 2010 grading list which has just been issued to graders to see what effects last years changes have had.

There are 7918 adult players who had a standard play grade in 2009 and 2010. The changes in those players grades ranged from a drop of 28 points to a gain of 54 points. The mean average change was a decrease of 0.3, and the median change was 0. 553 players lost more than 10 grading points (6.9%), playing an average of 21 games. 534 players gained more than 10 grading points (6.7%), playing an average of 26 games.

There are 697 junior players who had a standard play grade in 2009 and 2010 (I was staggered by how few players in this category there were). The changes in those players grades ranged from a drop of 30 points to a gain of 65 points. This is almost the same as the adults The mean average change was an increase of 7.8, and the median change was an increase of 6. 35 players lost more than 10 grading points, playing an average of 16 games (5.0%). 263 players gained more than 10 grading points (37.7%), playing an average of 34 games.

I then split the adults into quintiles to look at the change in grade by grade to examine the theory put forward by some that the highest graded players would simply mop up loads of free points from the lower graded players.

165-275 -0.46
144-164 -0.59
127-143 -0.28
108-126 -0.40
107- +0.30

So then I looked just at the very strong players, jut in case

200-275 -0.74
220-275 +0.18

What does this tell us?

1. The new system does not appear to have over-rated juniors as was claimed. More adults suffered a 10 point drop than juniors and whilst adults on average saw their grades stay approximately the same, juniors still saw a smallish increase in their grades. Far more juniors saw a big increase in their grade than their adult counterparts.
2. Grading deflation does not appear to have occurred this year. Adults saw a small decrease in their grades, whilst overall the list saw a small increase. This will have to be monitored in subsequent years. More importantly, the stretch that we saw in previous years appears not to have occurred this year. This is because the new, fixed, grades are now in alignment with expected performances.
3. Some forumites need to place a large order via humblepie.com

[Matthew Turner]

Sean,
I do not understand your conclusion number 3. Many people thought that many juniors had been overgraded last year and put forward some notable examples to support their case. If your analysis is correct, then surely one could draw the conclusion that the ECF had continued with the same (flawed) grading methodology and juniors had recieved even more ridiculous grades?
I think we will just have to wait to see the grades before saying anything too definitive.

[Sean Hewitt]

Sean,
I do not understand your conclusion number 3. Many people thought that many juniors had been overgraded last year and put forward some notable examples to support their case. If your analysis is correct, then surely one could draw the conclusion that the ECF had continued with the same (flawed) grading methodology and juniors had recieved even more ridiculous grades?
I think we will just have to wait to see the grades before saying anything too definitive.

We can all point to the one example which is wrong, but out of 10,000 graded players that's hardly evidence of a fundamental flaw. Some junior grades were wrong (hence the 5% who dropped more than 10 grading points), but this was no worse than for the general adult population and also no worse than in pre-fix years. It's the integrity of the list as a whole that interests me, and individual cases / notable examples are of little interest.

In my own events, juniors by and large played to their grades against adult opposition. This is borne out by the small upward movement in junior grades in 2010. If the doomsday merchants on here had been right these juniors would have been out of their depth and smashed to pieces. I'm pleased to say that that didn't happen. I'm also pleased that they didn't regularly win tournaments with performances 30 points and more above their grade as used to happen.

[Roger de Coverly]

2. Grading deflation does not appear to have occurred this year

How did you measure its appearance or lack of appearance?

[Sean Hewitt]

2. Grading deflation does not appear to have occurred this year

How did you measure its appearance or lack of appearance?

Aha. Another humble pie eater! I measured it like this

2. Grading deflation does not appear to have occurred this year. Adults saw a small decrease in their grades, whilst overall the list saw a small increase.