SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Debate directly related to English Chess Federation matters.
Post Reply
Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9308
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:04 pm

Stewart Reuben wrote:I have never understood why people prefer the former system which clearly results in bias against players at the top of the second half.
My reasoning is:

Swiss pairings were introduced as a way of pairing many players in a tournament, without them playing everyone (a la an APA).

This worked very well, unless you had number of players > 2^number of rounds. In which case, you could have two players on 100% who never played each other.

To get around this problem, you then have accelerated pairings, which mean the top players are more likely to meet, thus increasing the chance of avoiding the aforementioned problem.

So with the logic that Swiss pairings are the normal way of doing things, and the Accelerated Pairings are there to solve a problem, you shouldn't use Accelerated Pairings unless the problem exists. Since we have far less than 2^11 players in the British, we don't have the problem. So why should we use Accelerated Pairings?

Richard Bates
Posts: 3466
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2008 8:27 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Richard Bates » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:20 pm

Stewart Reuben wrote:
Richard Bates again raises the issue of straight seeded Swisses v Accelerated Pairings. I have never understood why people prefer the former system which clearly results in bias against players at the top of the second half.

Stewart Reuben
If players at the top of the second half are biassed against, then presumably another set of players are 'biassed' for... Perhaps everyone who is in favour of the former ;)

Alex McFarlane
Posts: 1861
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:52 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex McFarlane » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:33 pm

Alex H

All play alls were the norm at one time. Things progress. Accelerated swisses in various forms are becoming more common (and not just in this country).

Your logic of 2^n fails if you want more than the winner to be accurate. With 32 players in a 5 round Swiss you should only pay out a first prize as no other prize is accurate. That is the conclusion to the logic you use. I would therefore contest that your logic is flawed.

There are a variety of reasons for using acceleration that have been discussed elsewhere.

I'm going to Sheffield by the way (in case I'm accused of hijacking the thread :twisted:

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9308
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:21 pm

Alex McFarlane wrote:Alex H

All play alls were the norm at one time. Things progress. Accelerated swisses in various forms are becoming more common (and not just in this country).

Your logic of 2^n fails if you want more than the winner to be accurate. With 32 players in a 5 round Swiss you should only pay out a first prize as no other prize is accurate. That is the conclusion to the logic you use. I would therefore contest that your logic is flawed.

There are a variety of reasons for using acceleration that have been discussed elsewhere.
The British has no more than 80 players usually, and 11 rounds. If your logic were correct, then 7 rounds would be enough for the 1st prize on its own. So you still have 4 extra rounds in which the other prizes can be made more accurate. How many rounds should the British have before accelerated pairings aren't used?

Alex McFarlane
Posts: 1861
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:52 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex McFarlane » Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:25 pm

It is generally accepted that each additional place requires two rounds. That gives First to 3rd. Acceleration for 3 rounds could provide another two places.

User avatar
David Grobler
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:22 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by David Grobler » Sat Jul 02, 2011 1:48 am

just getting the thread back on topic......
SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM !!!!
Im waiting for my entry to get recognised on the web page...Im sure it will soon :)

Stewart Reuben
Posts: 4566
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2007 11:04 pm
Location: writer

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Stewart Reuben » Sat Jul 02, 2011 2:10 am

Alex McFarlane >It is generally accepted that each additional place requires two rounds.<
That assertion was made by W Ritson Morry. I have never seen any attempt to justify it statistically.
To give you one example of why we might want to have more than one place established which is statistically valid. There is the British U21 Championship subsumed within the event. Last year this was won by a rather low score.

Alex Holowczak >unless you had number of players > 2^number of rounds. In which case, you could have two players on 100% who never played each other.<
Because of draws, it is usually possible by almost any system to have perhaps 80 players in a Swiss and end up with no more than one player with 6/6 or even 5/5.
>So with the logic that Swiss pairings are the normal way of doing things, and the Accelerated Pairings are there to solve a problem, you shouldn't use Accelerated Pairings unless the problem exists. Since we have far less than 2^11 players in the British, we don't have the problem. So why should we use Accelerated Pairings?<

You are confusing Seeded Swiss Pairings with Swiss Pairings. There many systems, such as Dubov, Burstein, Lottery. Read my book. Until 1965 lottery was used uniformly in Britain. That has the disadvantage that it is less efficient at finding the 'best' winner but demonstrates no bias against players due to their pre-established ratings. There will be bias, but this will only be observable at the conclusion of the event. Each event will demonstrate different bias. The other problem of a lottery draw is that it is impossible to predict one's opponent. It is also impossible to prove that the arbiter has not fiddled the pairings. The seeded System, of which you are so fond, demonstrates bias against people at the top of the second half. See Keith Arkell's rsults in the 1984 British Championship where after 4 rounds he had played 3 of the 4 GMs. In a later event there were two players who drew their first four games with the same colour. A was towards the bottom of the first half and B towards the top of the second half. A played no rated opponents. B played 4 rated about 2400. It is entirely possible that A felt more aggrieved. It is entirely natural that arbiters will seek systems which show no bias.

One of the reasons for using the Accelerated Pairing System was to reduce the number of mismatches. I will define that as rated 320 points or more different because that is what the London Chess Association chose (320 = 40 grading points roughly). It does result in a very small number of tremendous mismatches in later rounds. The low rated player usually has had to beat two opponents much higher rated than himself.

Alex H >How many rounds should the British have before accelerated pairings aren't used?<
Profesor Elo said to me he thought Accelerated Pairings brought the leading players together too quickly. Lat year Michael Adams had to float through several score groups to find his opponent in the last round. That cannot be ideal. Wth 11 rounds I suspect that would become a very real problem if there were just 40 players. Arguably the lottery Swiss, which was used for the British until the mids-80s, was better when the number of players was 36 at the maximum because it was LESS efficient.

Both Dubov and Burstein seek to balance strength of opponents. We have tried the former. The Reuben System (see page 37 of the second edition of my book) would definitely avoid the bottom of the second half bias. It has only been used once and worked quite well. It takes on some of the aspects of a knockout. Say 80 players. 1v41. 41 wins, he becomes number 1, 1 becomes 41. If they draw 1 becomes 20 and 41 becomes 21. Added rules are needed where two or more players have the same seeding number.

I played one event where 1v80, 79v2 etc. was used throughout (as in the Knockout World Cup). It tremendously favoured the higher rated players, of whom I was one.

Going back to the thread. I am going to Sheffield. But I don't know how to get there with heavy luggage.
The event will be played at a fine venue, very centrally. Sheffield is a much more attractive city than when I first inspected it in the 1980s. At about this time Roger Edwards is being inundated with entries. We will have to wait patiently while he processes them.

[email protected]

Alex McFarlane
Posts: 1861
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:52 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex McFarlane » Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:19 am

Stewart Reuben wrote:That assertion was made by W Ritson Morry. I have never seen any attempt to justify it statistically.
I've always assumed that if you assume results go to seeding then in a 4 round event with 16 players after the 4th round you have 1 player on 4 and a further 4 on 3 points, hence another two rounds being needed. Similar arguements apply for the other powers of 2.

Stewart Reuben
Posts: 4566
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2007 11:04 pm
Location: writer

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Stewart Reuben » Sat Jul 02, 2011 11:31 am

Alex M >I've always assumed that if you assume results go to seeding then in a 4 round event with 16 players after the 4th round you have 1 player on 4 and a further 4 on 3 points, hence another two rounds being needed. Similar arguements apply for the other powers of 2.<

But that is an arithmetical assertion, not statistical reality. After all, for your 16 player tournament with everything going to rating, then round 2 is 6v1, 2v5, 8v3, 4v7 and so on. Also, in the example you gave, 1v4, 3v2 and 5 floating down would be the effect. (I might have that wrong.) How often have you run events with precisely 2^n? 1975 I did have 64 players and all 32 games went precisely with rating in round 1 of a seeded Swiss.

I forgot about mentioning another asset of the Accelerated System. It reduces the yo-yo effect which can be so unpleasant in a seeded Swiss.

Stewart Reuben

Roger de Coverly
Posts: 22607
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Roger de Coverly » Sat Jul 02, 2011 2:33 pm

Stewart Reuben wrote:I forgot about mentioning another asset of the Accelerated System. It reduces the yo-yo effect which can be so unpleasant in a seeded Swiss.
I think that depends on results. Doesn't the yo-yo effect resume when the acceleration ends? A second quartile player could lose in the first round (paired against fist quartile) and the second ( paired against a first round winner from a lower quartile). In the third after the end of acceleration they meet someone several hundred (Elo) points lower.

I've wondered if you could do a form of acceleration by a pairing rule which deliberately excluded mismatches. So using conventional seeded pairings, you float up or down any players who would cause such a mismatch. So if on the first pass, you would pair an IM against a 1900, on the second pass you float the IM up or the 1900 down. Thus you get multiple floats. Such a system might break if there were too many players either with inaccurate ratings or who played a tournament well above or well below their normal strength

Many years ago, Southend used an eccentric pairing system which in later rounds pitched players of similar ratings against one another. So something similar has been tried in the past. In Southend it gave silly results for the absolute sequencing of the players but tended to ensure the competitors for grading prizes met one another.

David Gilbert
Posts: 1001
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:03 am

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by David Gilbert » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:42 pm

Amazing! The 2 July 2011 list has 432 entries compared with 422 on the same date in 2010 and there’s more in the pipeline. Can Sheffield surprise a lot of people and exceed the numbers at Canterbury last year.

David Grobler’s name is in for the weekend – I’m waiting patiently for mine to appear (twice). Anyone have news of some of our other top players – Keith Arkell, Danny Gormally, Stewart Haslinger, Glen Flear, Jonathan Hawkins etc. I suppose Matthew Turner is playing elsewhere again (shame!)? And the Scots seem to have washed their hands of the British – is it nationalism?

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9308
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex Holowczak » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:45 pm

David Gilbert wrote:Amazing! The 2 July 2011 list has 432 entries compared with 422 on the same date in 2010 and there’s more in the pipeline. Can Sheffield surprise a lot of people and exceed the numbers at Canterbury last year.
Careful. You should compare the 2 July 2011 list with the 3 July 2010 list, since both days mark 22 days until the start of the Championship. :wink:

So far from being 10 entries ahead, Sheffield is actually 10 + 1 day of entries ahead of Canterbury.

David Gilbert
Posts: 1001
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:03 am

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by David Gilbert » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:53 pm

Okay Alex “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”

Alex Holowczak
Posts: 9308
Joined: Sat May 30, 2009 5:18 pm
Location: Oldbury, Worcestershire
Contact:

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Alex Holowczak » Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:55 pm

David Gilbert wrote:Okay Alex “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”
Hey, when you're getting 20-30 entries a day, these things matter! :P

Paul Dargan
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 11:23 pm

Re: SO WHO'S GOING TO SHEFFIELD? I AM!

Post by Paul Dargan » Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:16 pm

@ Stuart - re the yo-yo effect of seeded swisses .... Absolutely an issue I face in the Middle East - this Year I got:

Minasian (~2565) in round 1 (>300 pts above me)
junior 300+ pts below me
Strong (2400+) IM
Junior ~1890 ... not a great draw, but at least you get to play some strong players...

The previous year I kicked off with a 2600+ Iranian GM, then somehow on 1.5/3 I found myself facing another 2600 opponent...

If you can put-up with this then I strongly recommend Dubai Open just before Easter - not many Brits make it, you can get flights on Emirates for ~£350 if you book far enough in advance, grab a cheap hotel and the entry fee is about £20 for 9 rounds..


Paul D.

Post Reply