Main contenders for the British 2011?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Now that the entry list for the British Chess Championships for 2011 is looking complete, is it time to starting asking who the main contenders are? I'm going to list all the GMs and IMs here, and ask which ones people think are likely to take the top five spots (who is most in form and who will perform best in this sort of tournament and against their fellow British GMs?), and also ask people to predict the winning score (from 11 rounds). Also, nominate one person who you think will surprise us all and pull off the most impressive result relative to their rating.

The following is from the list as of 15th July, with 80 qualified entrants for the British Chess Championships 2011. There are 12 GMs and 15 IMs. I've given the top 32 in rating order below, as that includes the 4 FMs as well. The names and ratings are from the webpage here:

http://www.britishchess2011.com/entrants.htm

ADAMS, Michael, 2715 gm
SHORT, Nigel, 2687 gm
HOWELL, David WL, 2625 gm
JONES, Gawain, 2606 gm
PERT, Nicholas, 2555 gm
GORDON, Stephen, 2533 gm
HEBDEN, Mark, 2533 gm
WILLIAMS, Simon K, 2528 gm
CONQUEST, Stuart, 2519 gm
GORMALLY, Daniel, 2519 gm
WELLS, Peter, 2489 gm
PERT, Richard, 2459 im
HAWKINS, Jonathan, 2457 im
PALLISER, Richard JD, 2454 im
ZHOU, Yang-Fan, 2444 im
HUNT, Adam, 2436 im
LEDGER, Andrew, 2435 im
HOUSKA, Jovanka, 2418 im
SUMMERSCALE, Aaron, 2415 gm
ANSELL, Simon, 2410 im
RENDLE, Thomas, 2386 im
BUCKLEY, Graeme, 2380 im
BATES, Richard A, 2373 im
KOLBUS, Dietmar, 2335 im
EGGLESTON, David, 2318 fm
BEAUMONT, Christopher, 2313 im
WEBB, Laurence, 2306 fm
GRIFFITHS, Ryan-Rhys, 2301
CONSTANTINOU, Peter, 2292 fm
RUDD, Jack, 2278 im
LALIC, Susan, 2277 im
LEDGER, Dave, 2277 fm

[Christopher Kreuzer]

OK, my top five would be (in order): Howell, Adams, Short, Wells, Jones.
I think the winning score will be around 7.5/11.
And my pick for most impressive result would be Hawkins.

I fully expect the result to be completely different to these predictions.

PS. If making predictions is boring, maybe those who know could describe the styles and relative strengths and ages and careers of the GMs and IMs listed here? Youth versus experience, and positional versus tactical, and solid versus aggressive and so on.

[James Byrne]

...

[Paul Cooksey]

Top five spots:
Easy, top 5 rated!

Winning score:
8.5 / 11, probably tied

> Rating:
I'm tempted to say Jack Rudd, as a tricky answer based on his unrealistically low rating. But an outsider to trouble the favourites: Yang-Fan Zhou, I hope.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

If Short gets off to a good start I think he'll take it, if not, I can see him getting demoralised and having a shocker. Adams is a favourite as well of course, my dark hoarse pick would be Simon Williams, I really like his attacking style and hope he does well.

Interesting. What I'm wondering is if there are some in that list who have a 'hold' over their fellow players, who have a good record against certain players, and so on. Of course, which colours the players end up with will also influence things as well.

[Richard Bates]

Top five spots:
Easy, top 5 rated!

Winning score:
8.5 / 11, probably tied

I would be extremely surprised if 8.5/11 wasn't enough for outright first. I think history would normally have this as a winning score.

[Paul Cooksey]

I would be extremely surprised if 8.5/11 wasn't enough for outright first. I think history would normally have this as a winning score.

I was trying to be contoversial . But Adams was hugely impressive dealing with 2500s last year, and I think Short may do the same

[LozCooper]

I suspect accelerated pairings could make the winning score slightly lower or at least mean more clashes early on. I think most players offered 8 now would be happy.

[Alex Holowczak]

My prediction is slightly different from those above: The leader (or a player in a share of first place) after 9 rounds will win the tournament.

[Krishna Shiatis]

OK, my top five would be (in order): Howell, Adams, Short, Wells, Jones.
I think the winning score will be around 7.5/11.
And my pick for most impressive result would be Hawkins.

I fully expect the result to be completely different to these predictions.

Obviously top quality GMs and they are all in with a very strong chance. My prediction for top three would be:

Howell, Adams, Haria....

Well done to Ravi and Isaac in Amsterdam, wishing Ravi and all the juniors well in the Open section at the British, they will have their work cut out. It should be really exciting to watch.

[John Moore]

Top 5 will be top 5 - simple as that with maybe Stephen Gordon knocking one of them out of it. Best outsider bet in my view is Danny Gormally.

[John Moore]

I don't think that you can look outside Adams as a winner - who's going to beat him. Might be a tie on 9 with Short with Howell on 8. That's my best guess. Oh and Ravi will make 3.5 - hope he does better but don't see it.

[Carl Hibbard]

JONES, in my opinion and yes I would bet on that one...

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I don't think that you can look outside Adams as a winner - who's going to beat him. Might be a tie on 9 with Short with Howell on 8. That's my best guess. Oh and Ravi will make 3.5 - hope he does better but don't see it.

Bit harsh. Let's not predict who will end up in the lower reaches of the tournament. I agree about Adams and Short, though. The only chance would be if someone went on a run of lots of wins, and others fell back with lots of draws. The key will be the clashes between the top 5. Does anyone have the time to rustle up stats on recent results among the 12 GMs that are playing? i.e. results against each other, both over the years and recently? How many head-to-heads would that be among 12 players? I think it would be 66 head-to-head records.

[Jonathan Rogers]

I don't think that you can look outside Adams as a winner - who's going to beat him. Might be a tie on 9 with Short with Howell on 8. That's my best guess. Oh and Ravi will make 3.5 - hope he does better but don't see it.

Bit harsh. Let's not predict who will end up in the lower reaches of the tournament. I agree about Adams and Short, though. The only chance would be if someone went on a run of lots of wins, and others fell back with lots of draws. The key will be the clashes between the top 5. Does anyone have the time to rustle up stats on recent results among the 12 GMs that are playing? i.e. results against each other, both over the years and recently? How many head-to-heads would that be among 12 players? I think it would be 66 head-to-head records.

Let's start then with the question "who was the last player in that list to beat Adams in a serious game, apart from Short?" Shockingly, I have real difficulty with this. Beaumont and Conquest beat Adams in the British in 1988?! (Conquest was the last player to beat him at the British). But in fact I cannot think of anyone else in the field who beat Adams in any event at all from, say 1990 onwards. Hebden perhaps, but I don't recall details.

Who has beaten Short, apart from adams? Hebden certainly has, in the late 1990s (?). Williams has at least come close. I can't think of anyone else, though maybe others can. So, still pretty good going.

That is why very few of us can see past Adams and Short! Drop just one place to asking "who has beaten Howell?", and then Jones, and the list becomes very long. The mental block which many players will have when it comes to beating Short and Adams may very easily have a bearing.