Candidates 2019

Discuss anything you like about women's chess at home and abroad.
Leonard Barden
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Leonard Barden » Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:25 pm

Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 pm

With this momentum, she must have a good chance v Ju Wenjun as well.
Ju Wenjun is different class to the out of form septet who have opposed Goryachkina in Kazan, and she should still be the favourite, assuming the match is played first half in Russia, second half and tie-breaks in China.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:26 pm

Topalov went +6 at San Luis and then drew all the others.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:29 pm

Leonard Barden wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:25 pm
Jonathan Rogers wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 pm

With this momentum, she must have a good chance v Ju Wenjun as well.
Ju Wenjun is different class to the out of form septet who have opposed Goryachkina in Kazan, and she should still be the favourite, assuming the match is played first half in Russia, second half and tie-breaks in China.
The argument against is age and momentum - Goryachkina might be considerably stronger still in just another six months. If, by contrast, she were already 26, and had been playing at this level for the past four years, I would of course agree.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:33 pm

Actually I am probably agreeing that Ju Wenjun would still start as favourite, assuming also second half in China; but I am also saying good chance for Goryachkina, say 40-60.

Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Mick Norris » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:38 am

Goryachkina has 7.5/9, TPR 2804, and +31.1 on the live ratings so far; either a great tournament, or a leap in level
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Peter Shaw
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Peter Shaw » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:49 am

If Hou Yifan had decided to play then Goryachkina wouldn't have even got in the tournament!

Paul Cooksey
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Paul Cooksey » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:18 pm

Mick Norris wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:38 am
Goryachkina has 7.5/9, TPR 2804, and +31.1 on the live ratings so far; either a great tournament, or a leap in level
A bit of both I suppose. I don't think Goryachkina's games look like the games of a 2800 of similar style - say Ding Liren - parachuted into the event. But she does seem to be outplaying enough people from level middlegames to think she might be pushing upwards to 2600.

Peter Svidler described her as "a serious young player" and considered saying who her coach was. He decided not to, even though he thought the name already widely know. Sasha herself also declined to say when asked post-game. So I guess a big name.

I'm very pleased. I was expecting a WC match between Ju Wenjun and someone I was reasonably sure she would beat. But looks like we could have a real contest.

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:04 pm

Agreed.

I note Anna Muzychuk's opening v Tan today. Unambitious - but probably deliberately selected to take advantage of Tan's apparent technical weaknesses (she seems so much happier when "things are happening").

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:29 pm

Well, I expect that WAS the idea but one can take this sort of thing too far.

(Is it a common experience, incidentally, that when one slightly varies from one's usual style to take advantage of an opponent's apparent shortcomings, it hardly ever seems to work?)

Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Mick Norris » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:58 pm

Goryachkina draws with black against her nearest pursuer Lagno

1.5/4 is the maximum she needs to win (as she has a better head to head v Lagno)
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

Jonathan Rogers
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Jonathan Rogers » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:56 pm

Just looking with amusement at SF first line in Gunina v Dzagnidze, recommnding 22 ...Rxe1 for Black, with probably a winning position because Black isn't quite getting mated.

Well, would you?!

Mick Norris
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Mick Norris » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:33 pm

Goryachkina draws with A Muzychuk and her nearest pursuer Lagno draws with M Muzychuk

0.5/3 is the maximum she needs to win now
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

LawrenceCooper
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by LawrenceCooper » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:17 pm

Mick Norris wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:33 pm
Goryachkina draws with A Muzychuk and her nearest pursuer Lagno draws with M Muzychuk

0.5/3 is the maximum she needs to win now
0.5 more than sufficed with Lahno losing to Anna Muzychuk.

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Matt Mackenzie
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:07 pm

Kosteniuk seems to have forgotten how to play with the Black pieces :shock:
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Alex Holowczak
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Re: Candidates 2019

Post by Alex Holowczak » Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:37 pm

Goryachkina should be congratulated for an excellent performance, where she has comprehensively won a tournament which on paper at the start looked to be contested by a very evenly matched field of players.

I know that my grumbling about Round Robins is becoming akin to Roger's grumbling about the membership system, but the Women's Candidates is a good example of why Round Robins - particularly of this length - can be a very poor format.

There are three days left in this tournament, a rest day tomorrow, and then two more game days. Like so many sporting events worldwide, the only thing history will remember is the winner, and we already know who that is - indeed, we've been pretty certain about it for a few days already. Three days of garbage time at the end of the tournament is rather a lot. I'm sure it's nothing we haven't seen before in the GCT speed Round Robins, but at least because it's speed chess there's only maybe an hour of garbage time rather than three days.

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