Worrying times

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Locked
Daniel Gormally
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:41 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Daniel Gormally » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:52 pm

I've had worse rejections lol.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

this is the most depressing and frightening thing I've come across- a monster that is rising exponentially.

italy has lost a lot of people but there are countries like the US with far bigger populations- if it takes off there like it has in italy then could become very scary.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 3750
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:03 pm

Deleted
Last edited by David Sedgwick on Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

Daniel Gormally
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:41 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Daniel Gormally » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:33 am

I read somewhere last night that you are perhaps more likely to get coronavirus from lots of small contacts with asymptomatic people, in say a confined area like a bar, than you are from a more prolonged contact with someone who is clearly showing symptoms

so that one fact might put people off large crowds for the foreseeable future. in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 3750
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:33 am
… in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.
Away from chess, I think that the pandemic is bound to accelerate two already major trends:

1. From the high street to online shopping.

2. From the use of cash to card payments.

However, as regards chess tournaments, I am not so sure. I think that the first few congresses after the shutdown could well see record entries.

In bridge, this is likely to be even more marked. As far as I can tell, most members of my club regard online play as a poor second best and are looking forward to their Thursday evenings returning to normal as soon as possible.

NickFaulks
Posts: 5528
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:48 am

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:33 am
and we'll see the game move even further online.
You could be right for club level chess ( not in my case or that of most of my colleagues ) but we are still a million miles away from online being viable for the professional game.

User avatar
JustinHorton
Posts: 7359
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
Location: Somewhere you're not

Re: Worrying times

Post by JustinHorton » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:00 am

David Sedgwick wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:44 am
Daniel Gormally wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:33 am
… in fact in the short and longer term I think it will impact the popularity of chess tournaments full stop, and we'll see the game move even further online.
However, as regards chess tournaments, I am not so sure. I think that the first few congresses after the shutdown could well see record entries.
In principle you may be right, but bear in mind that a lot of people are going tio be absolutely cleaned out (and worse) before these is over. Myself among them, I should think.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

David Sedgwick
Posts: 3750
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:35 am

JustinHorton wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:00 am
In principle you may be right, but bear in mind that a lot of people are going tio be absolutely cleaned out (and worse) before these is over. Myself among them, I should think.
I shall have to cut back on travel even when it becomes possible, but that makes it more likely that I shall play in local events.

Matt Bridgeman
Posts: 298
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:21 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Matt Bridgeman » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:31 am

Boris has tested positive. Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers! Hospitals still awaiting adequate protective gear. Workers starting to drop like flies and ICU’s already approaching capacity.

NickFaulks
Posts: 5528
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:03 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:31 am
Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers!
The offshoring of our manufacturing industry was a stupid policy which was always going to come back and bite us, as it now is. However, given that a pathetically small number of tests are available, I can accept that that the Prime Minister is at the top of the list.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 3750
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:40 pm
Epidemics tend to cross barriers of class and wealth though, there's no escaping them. (Already here in Spain some very senior political figures ... have tested positive.)
Very prescient Justin, given that in the UK sufferers now include HRH The Prince of Wales and the Prime Minister.
Last edited by David Sedgwick on Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Reg Clucas
Posts: 370
Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 3:45 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Reg Clucas » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:43 pm

David Sedgwick wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:33 pm
JustinHorton wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:40 pm
Epidemics tend to cross barriers of class and wealth though, there's no escaping them. (Already here in Spain some very senior political figures ... have tested positive.)
Very prescient Justin, given that in the UK sufferers now included HRH The Prince of Wales and the Prime Minister.
"In the slaughterhouse all corpses smell the same
Whether Queens or pawns or innocents at the game"

(Peter Hammill)

David Gilbert
Posts: 750
Joined: Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:03 am

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Gilbert » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:44 pm

NickFaulks wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:43 pm
JustinHorton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:14 pm
Well presumably the correct criteria in these categories are the same voices epidemiologists normally use?
I should not have written "if properly calculated". I meant "if calculated in an ideal way". Epidemiologists, like others trying to model social science, do the best they can with imperfect data.

For the numerator, they would use whatever it says on the death certificate. In different societies there may in cases of doubt be pressures either to stress a particular cause or to downplay it. For the denominator, they would use reported cases because that's all they've got.

I did see a piece of modelling which tried to estimate how many people might already be immune - unfortunately the conclusion was something like "between 10,000 and 10,000,000", which presumably shows how difficult it is.
We will at some point know the death rate for COVID-19 because that is being measured. But we won't know the death rate among people with coronavirus because we only know the number of reported cases. To do that we would need to test the wider population to include people who may have had mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic. If we want to compare where we are internationally it might best be expressed as the number of deaths, where the underlying cause is COVID-19, per million population.

International Classification of Diseases version 10 (known as ICD-10) is used for coding diagnosis and deaths. Figures for the actual number of people admitted to hospital and the number of deaths will be recorded using two emergency ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued in the last few days by the World Health Organisation. U07.1 for cases confirmed by pathology and U07.2 where the virus has been diagnosed without pathology confirmation. In England these data will be collected as part of the Hospital Episode Statistics, known as HES.

Keep safe.

Angus French
Posts: 1646
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 1:37 am
Contact:

Re: Worrying times

Post by Angus French » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:02 pm

David Gilbert wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:44 pm
If we want to compare where we are internationally it might best be expressed as the number of deaths, where the underlying cause is COVID-19, per million population...

International Classification of Diseases version 10 (known as ICD-10) is used for coding diagnosis and deaths. Figures for the actual number of people admitted to hospital and the number of deaths will be recorded using two emergency ICD-10 codes for COVID-19 issued in the last few days by the World Health Organisation. U07.1 for cases confirmed by pathology and U07.2 where the virus has been diagnosed without pathology confirmation. In England these data will be collected as part of the Hospital Episode Statistics, known as HES.
But do the new codes attribute the cause of death to Covid-19 or do they merely say that a deceased person tested positive for Covid-19?

Mick Norris
Posts: 7861
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 10:12 am
Location: Bolton, Greater Manchester

Re: Worrying times

Post by Mick Norris » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:06 pm

Matt Bridgeman wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:31 am
Boris has tested positive. Charles and Boris have had the test, yet no NHS key workers! Hospitals still awaiting adequate protective gear. Workers starting to drop like flies and ICU’s already approaching capacity.
Matt Hancock has now tested positive

Whether the country would run better without him, Johnson and some of the others is a good question; they wouldn't be on my list of key workers
Any postings on here represent my personal views and should not be taken as representative of the Manchester Chess Federation www.manchesterchess.co.uk

John Moore
Posts: 1848
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 6:33 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by John Moore » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:38 pm

Mick, would you rather have had Corbyn and his cronies. At least, the current lot have had the good sense to rely on the scientific advice.

Locked