(Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Roger Lancaster
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger Lancaster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:23 pm

Angus French wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:05 pm
Also, as we know, the older you are the more at risk you are. Stats from Cambridge University and Public Health England currently (at 22 June 2020) give an infection fatality rate of 0.44% for those aged 45-64, 2.9% for those aged 65-74 and 17% for those aged 75+.
Central figures for younger folk are 0.0013% between ages 5 and 14, 0.0043% between 15 and 24, 0.029% between ages 25 and 44. These figures, and those quoted by Angus, are centralised in the sense that there's 95% confidence of their being correct subject to a 10% error [approx] in either direction. That means, for example, that the fatality rate for the 65-74 cohort is reckoned to be around 100 times that of the 25-44 cohort - a somewhat sobering statistic in view of chessplayers' demographics. As to junior events, the greatest risk by far is to parents and organisers.

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:05 pm

100 times O.0013% is still a very low number

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JustinHorton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by JustinHorton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:03 pm

Roger Lancaster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:23 pm

Central figures for younger folk are 0.0013% between ages 5 and 14, 0.0043% between 15 and 24, 0.029% between ages 25 and 44. These figures, and those quoted by Angus, are centralised in the sense that there's 95% confidence of their being correct subject to a 10% error [approx] in either direction. That means, for example, that the fatality rate for the 65-74 cohort is reckoned to be around 100 times that of the 25-44 cohort - a somewhat sobering statistic in view of chessplayers' demographics. As to junior events, the greatest risk by far is to parents and organisers.
Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:05 pm
100 times O.0013% is still a very low number
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

Roger Lancaster
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Roger Lancaster » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:50 pm

JustinHorton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:03 pm
Roger Lancaster wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:23 pm

Central figures for younger folk are 0.0013% between ages 5 and 14, 0.0043% between 15 and 24, 0.029% between ages 25 and 44. These figures, and those quoted by Angus, are centralised in the sense that there's 95% confidence of their being correct subject to a 10% error [approx] in either direction. That means, for example, that the fatality rate for the 65-74 cohort is reckoned to be around 100 times that of the 25-44 cohort - a somewhat sobering statistic in view of chessplayers' demographics. As to junior events, the greatest risk by far is to parents and organisers.
Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:05 pm
100 times O.0013% is still a very low number
Tim's arithmetic is of course impeccable although, in fairness, I was referring to 100 times 0.029%. That's almost three in every hundred.

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Paul Robert Jackson
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Paul Robert Jackson » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:14 pm

Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:40 pm
CzechTour has released regulations for three congresses, starting Aug 8, Sep 4 and Sep 17 (two in Czech Rep, one in Bulgaria)

http://czechtour.net/summer-prague-open/regulations/

http://czechtour.net/sunny-beach-open/regulations/

http://czechtour.net/files/propozice/20 ... 020-en.pdf

Tempting, at least to me, but will the UK have quarantining rules then?

UK goes green under Czech traffic light system

Adam Vojtech's announcement means there will be no more restrictions by Czech authorities on travel to and from the UK, including for tourism. Athough it's not yet been confirmed when this change will be made.
Paul Robert Jackson

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:45 pm

Looking promising!

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:49 pm

On the other hand (from BBC News):

Greece has decided to ban all flights from the UK until 15 July, according to Athens News Agency.
The current ban was expiring on 1 July but the Greek government has extended it for two more weeks.

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Paul Robert Jackson
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Paul Robert Jackson » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:59 pm

Tim Spanton wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:49 pm
On the other hand (from BBC News):

Greece has decided to ban all flights from the UK until 15 July, according to Athens News Agency.
The current ban was expiring on 1 July but the Greek government has extended it for two more weeks.
Crete did do chess tournament's in October, but I have never entered.
For holidays, I think travel will be allowed within a few weeks.
Paul Robert Jackson

Ian Thompson
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Ian Thompson » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:22 am

I see that the London League website is now showing all remaining 2019/20 season fixtures being played between late September and the end of November.

Presumably, the intention is to start the 2020/21 season in December or January and shorten it a bit to get it finished more or less on time.

David Sedgwick
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by David Sedgwick » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:40 am

Ian Thompson wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:22 am
I see that the London League website is now showing all remaining 2019/20 season fixtures being played between late September and the end of November.

Presumably, the intention is to start the 2020/21 season in December or January and shorten it a bit to get it finished more or less on time.
Those fixtures have been shown there for over a month.

London League Clubs were sent a questionnaire seeking their thoughts. Several said that they would find it difficult or impossible to raise teams for matches in Central London in Autumn 2020.

The London League AGM is being held virtually in a couple of weeks' time. I imagine that decisions will be taken then.

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:46 am

For those interested in Benidorm at the end of November:

Beniconnect Airport Transfers: We bring you great news, from the 1st of July we will be operating ALL OF OUR SERVICES from Alicante, Valencia and Murcia airports and train stations.
Our borders are open, as are the arms of all the beautiful resorts in the Costa Blanca waiting to welcome you back.

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:22 pm

UK death rate now below normal!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53233066
The number of deaths registered in the UK over one week has fallen below the five-year average for the first time since mid-March.

Ian Thompson
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Ian Thompson » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:45 pm

Tim Spanton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:22 pm
The number of deaths registered in the UK over one week has fallen below the five-year average for the first time since mid-March.
Is this to be expected?

Corona virus prematurely kills some people who wouldn't have lived much longer anyway. You then get fewer deaths in the weeks when those people would have died if they hadn't caught corona virus.

Tim Spanton
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Re: (Chess) Life Returning To Normal

Post by Tim Spanton » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:50 pm

Ian Thompson wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:45 pm
Tim Spanton wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:22 pm
The number of deaths registered in the UK over one week has fallen below the five-year average for the first time since mid-March.
Is this to be expected?

Corona virus prematurely kills some people who wouldn't have lived much longer anyway. You then get fewer deaths in the weeks when those people would have died if they hadn't caught corona virus.
Indeed - this is why people talk about "excess" deaths over a year


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