Mick Norris wrote: ↑
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:00 pm
Great result today; hope for another tomorrow, and USA winning or drawing pairings
There are 8 teams on 10 points rankings
, so there may be other possible final round opponents than Germany 1
Here is an analysis of the present situation and how it's likely to look before pairing the last round.
Let's look on the bright side and assume ENG win and reach 15 MP and Lasker don't beat USA. (Even if Lasker do win, but by a smaller margin, then ENG might take the lead or be tied on GP.)
Other key pairings between teams on 10 MP are:
Leipzig-2 v Germany-1
Canada v Germany-2
Grobenzell v Austria
Russia Women (9) v Brabant (10).
With several others on 9 playing each other,
In any case whatever the results in the matches USA (12) v Lasker (13) and ENG (13 MP) v Leipzig-1 (10), there will be three teams looking for downfloats to complicate the situation.
If results favour pairings (e.g. wins for Brabant, Austria and one of the teams in the Canada match) then the three leading teams will not have to seek opponents beyond a group on 12 MP.
But awkward results (such as a win for Russia Women) could reduce the pool of available opponents and the draw might have to take into consideration one team on 11 MP (i.e. possibly a team currently on 9).
As England are the only one of the three leaders who have not yet played GER-1, they will I think have to meet them in the last round. I cannot see GER-1 failing to beat Leipzig-2. Even a draw on that match would probably result in ENG playing GER-1.
England can also play Germany-2, Austria or Brabant if they are available for pairing. They have already played Canada, Grobenzell and of course the other two leaders.
ENG are the only leaders yet to meet GER-1.
USA could play Germany-2, Canada and Brabant. Laskers could play Canada, Grobenzell or Brabant, and at most three of them can reach 12, but it's possible that NONE of four mentioned teams will be on 12 MP. It will require TWO of them to win their matches for Lasker and USA to be paired without going down to the 11 group.
For example, a win for Germany-2 and draw or loss for Brabant would mean USA meeting GER-2 and Lasker having to play a team on 11 MP.
So it's clear that England have a favourable draw tomorrow but probably a much harder last round match.
That's probably why our star player John Emms is taking a rest.
I hope I have worked out the above correctly. It has got very hot again here today and sleeping may be difficult for the players.
The 65+ is more straightforward. Russia are on a perfect 14 and will win gold with a round to spare if they beat Germany-1 (Sveshnikov v Hort on top board) and Germany-2 can hold St Petersburg (who are on 12) to a draw at least.
The German teams and St Petersburg are contending for silver but there are a few teams that might in theory have a shot at bronze if all results went their way.
France have not played any of the four just above them strangely, so will probably get Russia in the last round. Their chances were ruined by a shock loss in round 3 to a German club, Hessische Musketeers.
Everything will be clearer tomorrow night.