2016 Candidates prediction

[Paolo Casaschi]

Just for fun, a poll for predicting the winner of the upcoming candidates tournament.

Feel free to comment on your vote by replying to this post or to vote anonymously: we'll see if the ECForum as a whole can correctly predict the winner.

The poll will close before the start of the tournament.

I'll start with my own prediction: I hope Anand will surprise everyone once again.

[NickFaulks]

I'll start with my own prediction: I hope Anand will surprise everyone once again.

er, that's not a prediction.

[Mick Norris]

I'll start with my own prediction: I hope Anand will surprise everyone once again.

Hope? I assume we are predicting who will win, not who we hope will win

I hope Svidler wins, but I don't think he will

[Paolo Casaschi]

I'll start with my own prediction: I hope Anand will surprise everyone once again.

er, that's not a prediction.

I hope Anand will will because that is my prediction. I thought sometimes in English the most important parts of a sentence are the ones that are not actually written but clearly those subtleties are beyond my grasp

[NickFaulks]

I hope Anand will win because that is my prediction.

Or do you predict he will win because that is your hope?

[Tim Harding]

I'll start with my own prediction: I hope Anand will surprise everyone once again.

er, that's not a prediction.

I hope Anand will will because that is my prediction. I thought sometimes in English the most important parts of a sentence are the ones that are not actually written but clearly those subtleties are beyond my grasp

I like Anand but I would prefer another winner because the chess world in general wants (I think) a new challenger not a third Anand-Carlsen match which Carlsen would almost certainly win.

I voted in the poll for Caruana because I think he has a good chance of winning the Candidates and the best chance of any of them for giving Carlsen a tough match and beating him. So that is my prediction.

Just because I predict a win for Caruana does not mean I hope he wins. (Whether my prediction comes true is not the most important thing to me - maybe that's the subtlety Paolo misses?)

I would LIKE Nakamura to win the Candidates because I like the guy (I met him in Gibraltar) and his style of play but I FEAR that if he wins the Candidates he will not be able to overcome his large minus score against Magnus.

I would QUITE LIKE Svidler to win, although he's Russian, because he is an Anglophile, cricket-lover, very good chess commentator on chess24 etc. but I do not expect him to win because we saw what happened in Baku...

I would be QUITE SATISFIED if Aronian were to win as he seems an OK guy from what one sees online, plays some openings I am interested in, and also has a good record against Magnus.

I DON'T MIND if Magnus remains World Champion but whether I would actually want him to win the match depends on who is his opponent. (I also think that if he loses the match he will at some point regain the title.)

I would be SURPRISED if Giri were to win as he draws so many games. I would NOT be surprised if he becomes world champion at some point in the next ten years. Also his articles and notes for New In Chess are illuminating and entertainingly opinionated. Can backfire on him as when he described Wesley So as "not scary" just before Wesley beat him last time they met...

I would be VERY DISAPPOINTED (as well as surprised) if Topalov wins the Candidates because in the past he has behaved very badly, especially with regard to Kramnik going back many years. For example, at the last European Club Cup when Kramnik played with an extra lamp because of his eye trouble, Topalov refused to allow it for their game, refused to shake hands and wouldn't congratulate Kramnik on his win. (I was watching online.) I think the chess world in general could well do without Topalov and I would like to see him retire. Fortunately I don't think he has much chance of winning the Candidates.

I would also STRONGLY DISLIKE a Karjakin win, though I fear it could happen, because he is a defector from Ukraine to Russia and a supporter of Putin. I don't have an objection to him on chess grounds, though; he is clearly a very fine player who could be a difficult opponent for Magnus Carlsen.

After the first cycle of games in Moscow we can all revisit our predictions?

[JustinHorton]

I voted for Nakamura: I think, in no way I can justify by argument, that he's the most talented of all of them.

At given points in the last couple of years I'd quite likely have said Aronian, Caruana or (more recently) Giri, but the first seems to have blown up, the second has gone off the boil and the third looked very vulnerable in Wijk Aan Zee - and hard-to-beat had been the most impressive thing about him.

Most of all I'd like Kramnik to win. Or me. But neither of us are competing.

Are betting odds available?

[JustinHorton]

Here we go. Nakamura very marginally the favourite, from Caruana. Svidler the longest shot.

[Tim Harding]

I don't think "talented" has any meaning here. Nakamura (since his disappointing result in the 2014 Sinquefield Cup) has become a lot more solid and his endgame play has greatly improved. He may start with a few draws but recent events show that if he is still in the mix with two rounds to go there is no better man (except Magnus) in a decisive must-win situation.

Aronian did fall back a lot but he won the 2015 Sinquefield Cup and beat Magnus in the EU Team Ch last November so I would see him as a possible Candidates winner.

Can anyone tell us whether there are 30-second increments from move 1 in the Candidates?

No increments would favour Nakamura who is the best blitz player of the eight and arguably has the best nerves in a crisis.

Increments would favour Caruana who (as you may recall) lost a winning position to Magnus in a no-increment time scramble last year.

[Nick Burrows]

Caruana will lead early but his stamina will fail him, and Nakamura will take it.

[Mick Norris]

Increments from move 61 I think EDIT - I got this from TWIC, but the regulations have increments from move 1

Àgree with nearly all of Tim's interesting first post

[Barry Sandercock]

Nakamura is my prediction to win.

[Brian Towers]

Here we go. Nakamura very marginally the favourite, from Caruana. Svidler the longest shot.

Looking at those odds, were I a betting man, I'd split my money between Anand, Topalov and Svidler and get similar odds that any one of my 3 wins as just backing Nakamura.
The field is separated by only 50 rating points. It has got to be wide open, a lot more wide open than those odds reflect.

[Paolo Casaschi]

I like Anand but I would prefer another winner because the chess world in general wants (I think) a new challenger not a third Anand-Carlsen match which Carlsen would almost certainly win.

Carlsen will almost certainly win a match against any of the eight candidates.

I would also STRONGLY DISLIKE a Karjakin win, though I fear it could happen, because he is a defector from Ukraine to Russia and a supporter of Putin.

To be fair with Karjakin, I believe he's of Russian descent and born in the region contended between Russia and Ukraine so your judgement as a defector might be too harsh.

After the first cycle of games in Moscow we can all revisit our predictions?

Certainly, this poll closes before the start of he event. At that point we can easily start another poll closing at the mid of the tournament.

[Matt Mackenzie]

I don't want Nakamura to win precisely because he has never beaten Carlsen in a classical game (despite some golden chances to do so)

He could well break that duck in a WC match, but actually winning it? Impossible to see I'm afraid.

Caruana may have gone "off the boil" a bit recently, but could that partly be because he is saving hmself for this event?

I suspect it may be, one of the reasons why I have voted for him. Surprised nobody has gone for Giri yet, he has a genuine chance IMO.