Worrying times

Discuss anything you like about chess related matters in this forum.
Kevin Thurlow
Posts: 4075
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Kevin Thurlow » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:38 pm

"Perhaps the Extra deaths are from other causes such as not having GP and Nursing treatment or day surgery treatment for the last 4 weeks."

Possibly, I was summoned for a routine blood test a couple of weeks ago. The local surgery has closed indefinitely, so I had a half-hour drive to its sister surgery, where the armour-plated nurse carried out the test and said half the staff were out as they had someone symptomatic at home. I went for another one last week, and they only seemed to be doing nurse-like things. This time I was told there were no positive Covid-19 cases in the area. (Maybe the medical staff are working in various hospitals). Just to really cheer everyone up, a doctor friend says that people are going to hospital with heart problems, strokes etc., and then they get the virus whilst in hospital... Maybe they should try to divert all Covid-19 patients to the "Nightingale" hospitals and keep a hospital free for other patients (as far as possible)?

NickFaulks
Posts: 6060
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:08 pm

Kevin Thurlow wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:38 pm
Just to really cheer everyone up, a doctor friend says that people are going to hospital with heart problems, strokes etc., and then they get the virus whilst in hospital...
That has been a popular mode of death for years, doesn't have to be this virus.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

David Sedgwick
Posts: 4121
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 5:56 pm
Location: Croydon

Re: Worrying times

Post by David Sedgwick » Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:12 pm

Kevin Thurlow wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:38 pm
I was summoned for a routine blood test a couple of weeks ago.
I doubt that that would have happened anywhere in London. I have had two such appointments postponed indefinitely.

Matthew Turner
Posts: 3107
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 11:54 am

Re: Worrying times

Post by Matthew Turner » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:24 am

An interesting interview about Sweden’s approach to coronavirus
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-ep ... om-sweden/

Daniel Gormally
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:41 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Daniel Gormally » Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:27 pm

Matthew Turner wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:24 am
An interesting interview about Sweden’s approach to coronavirus
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-ep ... om-sweden/
the expert looks like roger emerson! :lol:

NickFaulks
Posts: 6060
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:04 pm

I watched that this morning, and was not surprised to find that I agreed with everything he said ( with one exception ).

I have to say that I find his thesis, that a year from now we shall discover that similar countries have experienced similar numbers of coronavirus deaths per million of population, quite convincing. The distinction will be the amount of collateral damage along the way. A different result can be achieved only by staying locked down until a reliable vaccine is developed, and that isn't going to happen.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

User avatar
Gerard Killoran
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:51 am
Contact:

Re: Worrying times

Post by Gerard Killoran » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:37 pm

A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.
To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu,
Really?
Sweden.jpg
Sweden.jpg (228.07 KiB) Viewed 865 times
From The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”
Apr 17, 2020
Hans Bergstrom

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... om-2020-04

User avatar
John Clarke
Posts: 483
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2011 1:07 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by John Clarke » Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:57 pm

Figures for NZ:
Population 5 million
Deaths 11
Deaths/million 2.2

Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation. (According to the Guardian's infection map, Greenland hasn't been hit at all yet.) But things mightn't ultimately be as rosy as those stats would seem to suggest. The real tests, as elsewhere, will come with how and when to ease the lock-down, and whether the economy can recover. NZ is going for total eradication of the virus. Might be achievable, but keeping it that way is another matter. Severe border restrictions and precautions would be necessary for an indefinite period; both would considerably inhibit the trade we depend on.
"The chess-board is the world ..... the player on the other side is hidden from us ..... he never overlooks a mistake, or makes the smallest allowance for ignorance."
(He doesn't let you resign and start again, either.)

User avatar
Matt Mackenzie
Posts: 3493
Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 11:51 pm
Location: Millom, Cumbria

Re: Worrying times

Post by Matt Mackenzie » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:12 am

John Clarke wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:57 pm
Figures for NZ:
Population 5 million
Deaths 11
Deaths/million 2.2

Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation. (According to the Guardian's infection map, Greenland hasn't been hit at all yet.) But things mightn't ultimately be as rosy as those stats would seem to suggest. The real tests, as elsewhere, will come with how and when to ease the lock-down, and whether the economy can recover. NZ is going for total eradication of the virus. Might be achievable, but keeping it that way is another matter. Severe border restrictions and precautions would be necessary for an indefinite period; both would considerably inhibit the trade we depend on.
According to Wikipedia's, it has. Still some Pacific microstates without any cases, though.
"Set up your attacks so that when the fire is out, it isn't out!" (H N Pillsbury)

NickFaulks
Posts: 6060
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:40 am

John Clarke wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:57 pm
Lots easier of course for a fairly remote island nation.
And one which is heading into winter as we are heading out of it - there is no evidence yet, but given that this thing is apparently a nasty variant of the common cold that does feel like a factor.

If the Kiwis I have known over the years are any guide, they will find being confined within their own borders quite vexing, and many will be ready to take their chances in the outside world well before it is virus-free.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

User avatar
Michael Farthing
Posts: 1965
Joined: Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:28 pm
Location: Morecambe, Europe

Re: Worrying times

Post by Michael Farthing » Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:45 am

Gerard Killoran wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:37 pm
A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.
To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.
That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.

Daniel Gormally
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:41 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by Daniel Gormally » Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:05 am

I've read that herd immunity won't be achieved with this thing until we get about eight waves of the virus. not sure that's true though.

let's face it we don't really know anything about the virus. the different haphazard responses by governments has shown as much. we are all learning on the go

User avatar
JustinHorton
Posts: 8061
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:06 am
Location: Somewhere you're not

Re: Worrying times

Post by JustinHorton » Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:48 am

Michael Farthing wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:45 am
Gerard Killoran wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:37 pm
A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.
To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.
That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.
It's not a point much shared elsewhere though, and if it depends on the true infection rate being much much higher than most other authorities believe, then he really needs to be right and everybody else wrong.
"Do you play chess?"
"Yes, but I prefer a game with a better chance of cheating."

lostontime.blogspot.com

NickFaulks
Posts: 6060
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:28 pm

Re: Worrying times

Post by NickFaulks » Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:51 am

Daniel Gormally wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:05 am
I've read that herd immunity won't be achieved with this thing until we get about eight waves of the virus. not sure that's true though.
I saw that, can't remember where now. As often happens, the sums looked ok but at some point there was a leap of logic which I couldn't follow.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — forever.

User avatar
Gerard Killoran
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:51 am
Contact:

Re: Worrying times

Post by Gerard Killoran » Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:33 pm

Michael Farthing wrote:
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:45 am
Gerard Killoran wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:37 pm
A couple of observations on the summary of the UnHerd interview.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available.
To achieve (Un?)Herd immunity at least 60% - and probably much more - of the population will need to have had the disease. That is approx 40 Million people. Even taking the given mortality rate of 0.1%, this would result in 40,000 deaths. We are on schedule for this number even with a shutdown.
That is precisely his point. The deaths will be as high with the lockdown as without.
This is precisely why his point is wrong. Without the lockdown, the number of infections, hospitalisations and deaths would not be peaking but still rising exponentially. We would have far, far more than 40,000 deaths. If the lockdown had no effect then we must have already reached 'Herd immunity and AT LEAST 60% of the population infected for these numbers to be levelling off and be hitting the 40,000 target. Does anyone believe this? The Swedes calculate the 0.1% death rate by assuming a very high infection rate, for which they have no evidence. It is at best a guesstimate.

Locked