Chess Playing PPCs

[Paul McKeown]

I believe I saw Alan Reid's face on the TV earlier today. He had been the MP for Argyll & Bute from 2001 to 2015, when he was defeated by the SNP's Brendan O'Hara. I believe he is currently a councillor in Bearsden. He is currently standing in the coming General Election once more as the LD candidate for Argyll & Bute. If elected, he would, almost certainly, once more be the strongest chess playing parliamentarian.

Any other chess playing candidates (apart from the obvious Rachel Reeves and Knight sisters)?

[IM Jack Rudd]

Jonathan Arnott's stood before; don't know if he'll be standing this time.

[Mick Norris]

I believe I saw Alan Reid's face on the TV earlier today. He had been the MP for Argyll & Bute from 2001 to 2015, when he was defeated by the SNP's Brendan O'Hara. I believe he is currently a councillor in Bearsden. He is currently standing in the coming General Election once more as the LD candidate for Argyll & Bute. If elected, he would, almost certainly, once more be the strongest chess playing parliamentarian.

Does he stand any chance? I see the constituency has been changed to Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

[Paul McKeown]

Does he stand any chance? I see the constituency has been changed to Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

I have no polling information concerning the seat. However, as the dogs on the street well know, the Conservatives are quite possibly going to get the worst pasting in their history, and the SNP are going to have their backsides handed to them, then I would have thought Alan Reid, as a weel kent face, ought to be in with a shout. I see Labour, though, seem to have chosen a plausible looking candidate for the seat, too.

[Alistair Campbell]

Not really relevant but I think Andy Muir is standing in a local authority by-election in Dumbarton next month as an Independent.

I'll offer some comments on Argyll et al later.

[Chris Goodall]

An interesting election in North Tyneside 2015. You'll recognise the Trade Union+Socialist candidate of course, but the late Mr Batten of the N******l F***t was also an active player. I remember Tim being unimpressed at not being invited onto the stage at some hustings event, and I think I rather annoyed him with my comment that a debate that included him would have no reasonable grounds to exclude Batten.

[Matt Mackenzie]

An interesting election in North Tyneside 2015. You'll recognise the Trade Union+Socialist candidate of course, but the late Mr Batten of the N******l F***t was also an active player.

Had a peak grading of 115 in mid 2013, so not a total patzer.

[Alistair Campbell]

Andrew Muir is standing for the Scottish Family Party in West Dunbartonshire

[Alistair Campbell]

I promised some comments on Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber.

These took longer than expected, and much of this may be deemed “off topic” but you can always admire the scenery.

The short answer is: this is one of the hardest constituencies to predict, but I suspect the SNP will hang on.

First some geography.

The original constituency was Argyllshire. It became Argyll in 1950, lost a northern chunk to Inverness Nairn and Lochaber but gained the island of Bute in 1983 and then was given a bit of Dunbartonshire in 2005.

Now it seems to have got the Invernesian chunk back and more with the inclusion of the Ardnamurchan bit of the Fort William and Ardnamurchan ward (plus a bit near Ballachulish, possibly).

Ardnamurchan (sometimes pronounced with an epenthetic vowel, the sort of thing that might have pleased David Robertson) consists of five peninsulae:

Moidart – the new bit, where Bonnie Prince Charlie raised his standard in 1745;
Ardnamurchan itself (as in Ardnamurchan Point, the most westerly point on the British mainland);
Sunart (home to Strontian, where Strontium was discovered and Ardnamurchan High School, confusingly).
Morvern, which contains Ardtornish point, a rare example of a multiple tautological toponym – a threefold repetition if you like;
Ardgour, which is home to not much - possibly a few goats.

A couple of years ago the complete ward elected 4 councils to Highland council (not Argyll and Bute council) – a Green, an independent, a Scottish Nationalist, and a Lib Dem who is standing in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire.

I don’t know why Argyllshire was a “shire” since it doesn’t have a county town of that name.
Nor do I know why it’s Dumbarton, but Dunbartonshire. I might ask Andy Muir.

[Alistair Campbell]

Now some history

I think 15 pf the first 19 MPs for Argyllshire were Campbells, but the rot set in in 1878.

In my lifetime the seat has been Tory, SNP, Liberal, Lib Dem and SNP.

It was Tory for years.
Humph (Iain MacCormick of the famous nationalist family – son of King John; a Modern Studies teacher) won for the SNP in Feb 74
John J (MacKay, later Lord MacKay of Ardbrecknish, former Liberal candidate; a Maths teacher) succeeded him for the Tories at the start of the Thatcher revolution in 1979.
Ray Michie (whose father was a rugby internationalist and whose grandfather wrote “Mairi’s wedding” won for the Liberals in 1987.
Alan Reid (who represented Scotland in the 1978 Olympiad in Argentina) retained the seat but lost it on the night of the long sgian dubhs in 2015 to the SNP’s Brendan O’Hara, about whom I know very little – I think he worked for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) in some capacity).

[Alistair Campbell]

Now for the hard bit – what will happen this year?

Many voters will be using the election to express an opinion on what they see as a scandal-ridden, incompetent, populist and nationalist government

This may result in many voting SNP to keep the Tories out, and Conservative to keep the Nationalists out. They could cancel out.

Nationally, I suspect Labour will concentrate on West central Scotland, where the bulk of the seats are, and where they could harvest quite a few;
The Conservatives will concentrate on the North East and the Borders;
The Lib Dems will be looking to make notional gains in NE Fife, CSER and Mid-Dunbartonshire.
The SNP will be trying to minimise losses

Should the campaigns go well or badly then other seats may come into play.

Geographically, the seat is partly island, partly highland, but with a lowland bit. I think this contributes to being almost a four way marginal; you feel that anyone could win with an energetic campaign and a charismatic candidate, but

National campaigning will be concentrated elsewhere;
due to the widespread geography local campaigning will be largely restricted to the centres of population – little point traipsing across countryside populated mostly by goats for example. (I won’t suggest who the sheep will be voting for…).

Canvas returns will be sketchy and people may have little idea what is happening and will have to decide which of the possible two-way marginals the seat has become. Many will be an election behind in their thinking.

Specific factors will include:

• The fiddling about with constituency borders – how will a ward that was in a Party A/Party B marginal react to suddenly being in a Party A/Party C marginal (or even a Party D/Party C marginal)?
• The ferries fiasco – although mostly affecting Arran and the Outer Hebrides, there must be a lot of discontent over the failing CalMac fleet
• Wimbledon and the Euros – people will be more interested in the latter for the first round, at least and may pay less attention to the national campaign.
I suspect that both SNP and Conservatives will lose a lot of votes (but not as many as would otherwise be the case were there a clear alternative). Should they go Lib Dem Alan would have a real chance, but I suspect a lot will stay at home and the SNP will be re-elected. But a week is a long time in politics.

[Alistair Campbell]

Alan Melville (ex Edinburgh Civil Service CC) is running in Edinburgh North and Leith, but for Reform this time.

[Chris Goodall]

An interesting election in North Tyneside 2015. You'll recognise the Trade Union+Socialist candidate of course, but the late Mr Batten of the N******l F***t was also an active player.

Had a peak grading of 115 in mid 2013, so not a total patzer.

Indeed although languished in Division 3 beating up kids because the C team captain barred him.

[John Upham]

See

https://www.businessmole.com/meet-rache ... hancellor/

[Alistair Campbell]

Any other chess playing candidates (apart from the obvious Rachel Reeves and Knight sisters)?

Are you mixing up your Angelas? I assume you mean Eagle sisters.

Anyway, Daniel Coleman is standing for the Scottish Lib Dems in Dundee Central. I think Peter Doig, who represented the old Dundee West constituency was also a player back in the day.