Candidates 2026 qualification

[Mick Norris]

FIDE

Qualification routes:

FIDE CIRCUIT 2024 - Fabiano Caruana

2025 Grand Swiss - Anish Giri, Matthias Bluebaum

2025 World Cup - 3 qualifiers

FIDE CIRCUIT 2025 -

One player who would achieve the highest results during 2025 in eligible tournaments. The final score is calculated as the sum of the player’s five highest scores.

FIDE RATING -

The highest-rated player according to the 6-month average rating based on FIDE Standard Rating Lists from August 1st 2025 till January 1st 2026 provided the respective player has played at least 40 games calculated for FIDE Standard Rating Lists from February 1st 2025 till January 1st 2026 (including at least 15 games in any of the 6 consecutive rating lists).

[Mick Norris]

FIDE Circuit 2025

Praggnanandhaa R currently in the lead, and helped by Giri & Bluebaum having already qualified for the Candidates

Nakamura currently favourite for the Ranking spot

[Mick Norris]

FIDE

In summary, Praggnanandhaa’s lead looks virtually insurmountable. Even a brilliant performance in the remaining events by one of his competitors is unlikely to prevent him from qualifying for the 2026 Candidates via the FIDE Circuit 2025.

[LawrenceCooper]

https://www.fide.com/mediterranean-stag ... to-cyprus/

[Mick Norris]

Interesting choice

[Mick Norris]

Nakamura lost another 2.5 ratings point at the Washington Dulles Open, but has completed the games requirement to take the rating spot in the Candidates

[Matt Mackenzie]

And the number of games was always the most important thing, as long as he didn't drop a stupid number of points (never likely)

[Mick Norris]

Sindarov and Wei Yi qualify from the World Cup, along with Esipenko

[Nick Burrows]

Likely final 8:

Caruana
Praggnanandhaa
Giri
Nakamura
Wei Yi
Sindarov
Esipenko
Bluebaum

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Likely final 8:

Caruana
Praggnanandhaa
Giri
Nakamura
Wei Yi
Sindarov
Esipenko
Bluebaum

Anyone want to predict a winner from that lot?

I would rank them as follows:

Caruana
Praggnanandhaa
Giri
Wei Yi
Nakamura
Sindarov
Esipenko
Bluebaum

So only slightly different to the order Nick posted them in (was that ordered by live rating?).

Who would be most motivated to reach a match against Gukesh, and who would Gukesh most/least fear?

[Mick Norris]

Live ratings (ranking in brackets):

Nakamura 2810.5 (2)
Caruana 2795.0 (3)
Praggnanandhaa 2760.8 (7)
Giri 2760.0 (8)
Wei Yi 2754.8 (9)
Sindarov 2726.0 (22)
Esipenko 2695.6 (34)
Bluebaum 2678.8 (43)

Leko was saying on commentary this morning that the most pressure is on Nakamura and Caruana, as the highest rated (Naka is 37, so his last chance probably of a WC match)

[LawrenceCooper]

Live ratings (ranking in brackets):

Nakamura 2810.5 (2)
Caruana 2795.0 (3)
Praggnanandhaa 2760.8 (7)
Giri 2760.0 (8)
Wei Yi 2754.8 (9)
Sindarov 2760.0 (22)
Esipenko 2695.6 (34)
Bluebaum 2678.8 (43)

Leko was saying on commentary this morning that the most pressure is on Nakamura and Caruana, as the highest rated (Naka is 37, so his last chance probably of a WC match)

Possibly a typo for Sindarov's live rating?

[Mick Norris]

Ah yes, 2726.0; my typing is as poor as my chess

[IM Jack Rudd]

Nobody will be anywhere close to an odds-on favourite there. I'll be waiting to see what Chess By The Numbers says.

[Mick Norris]

Caruana and Naka presumably meet in rounds 1 and 8, based on precedent; I wonder if that makes a draw more likely, especially in round 1

Christopher asked "Who would be most motivated to reach a match against Gukesh, and who would Gukesh most/least fear?" I'd add Giri to the top 2 as coming into last chance territory, but Gukesh may least prefer the circus of playing in India against Pragg

Gukesh would be delighted to get Bluebaum or Esipenko, I guess; Sindarov too, although the Uzbeks have the right kind of structure to support a WC challenger, with Kasimdzhanov having lots of experience as a second to Vishy