BRITISH CHESS CHAMPIONSHIPS - THE GAMES

[Maxim Devereaux]

I wonder if this 9. ...d5 Dragon is a good idea vs. Mickey. I can just imagine him getting a slightly better double R endgame with a 2v1 on the Q-side, and just going on and on with it to grind out a win. For some reason, one of his exchange Spanish games (vs. Shirov?) came to mind.

Gordon-Hunt. Hmm... who has caught whom in prep? Adam is playing very fast. I don't think this line looks that great for White. He cannot hold the extra pawn. He blitzed out 12. ...Nd7, but I wondered about 12. ...Nd5 instead. I don't know the theory on this, but, maybe 13. Qc5 Nxc3 14. bc b6 15. Qxc6? Bd7 16. Qc4 Rc8, so 15. Qa3 instead, and then 15. ...Be5 (for example) wins back the pawn with a decent position.

EDIT: maybe he could have replied to 12. ...Nd5 with 13. e5. I rejected it at first as too loose, but I wonder...
13. e5 Nxc3 14. Qxc3 Re8 15. Bf4 f6. Maybe this is good for White... I don't know :-/

[LozCooper]

I wonder if this 9. ...d5 Dragon is a good idea vs. Mickey. I can just imagine him getting a slightly better double R endgame with a 2v1 on the Q-side, and just going on and on with it to grind out a win. For some reason, one of his exchange Spanish games (vs. Shirov?) came to mind.

I was expecting Mickey to play an Anti-Sicilian, albeit I wasn't sure which one. Perhaps Gawain didn't want to risk the 12....e5 lines against an obviously well prepared opponent. I agree though, that Mickey would be happy with a nominal edge whilst keeping any black counterplay to a minimum.

[Charlie Linford]

Sorry I didn't get in in time to post these before the off, but my account had to be activated...

Short 2/1 - Draw Evens - Howell 5/1
Adams 5/4 - Draw 11/10 - Jones 9/1
Gordon 11/8 - Draw 5/4 - Hunt 6/1
Wells 6/4 - Draw 6/4 - Houska 4/1
Griffiths 6/1 - Draw Evs - Pert 7/4
Hawkins 4/6 - Draw 4/1 - Rudd 4/1

Those are all to around 100-101% (no Charlie Storey markets here!). An accumulator on the six whites would have paid 466/1. Maxim's numbers bear fairly close resemblence to these prices, though my model does have a much stronger lean towards the draw than the white win in long Swiss tournaments. Draw in the Houska match is also interesting; Houska has the lowest draw % of the top five boards (the inimitable gamer Jack Rudd skews the board six prices ridiculously!), but three previous draws is an interesting pointer.

[Maxim Devereaux]

It seems this Grunfeld from Gordon-Hunt was seen in Carlsen-Dominguez, Sofia 2009. There Black did play 12. ...Nd5, White replied 13. Qd3, kept the d6 pawn (losing back a2, though that's not so relevant) and a grip on the game, and went on to win.

12. ...Nd7 might be new, based on the limited number of games I've got access to.

EDIT: And the way it has gone, Black looks fine after 14. ...Bxd6 e.g. 15. Rd1 Qc7 16. Qh6 Re8 and the bishop can reappear on g7 in time, via f8, if needed. Was 13. Qe3 right - there were other squares to choose from, and it might just get in the way there, not really help White achieve f4.

EDIT: Okay, so Stevie has gone immediately 15. Qh6, maybe with the idea of following up with f4, but still, ...Re8 with the idea Bf8 looks like a sound move. 15. ...Re8 16. f4 Bf8 17. Qh3 looks very loose for White. I'm analysing blind, but something could go very wrong, like ...17. ...Qb6+ 18. Be3 Bc5 19. Bxc5+ Nxc5 20. Qe3 Nxe4, and White loses a pawn.

In Jovanka's game, I'd be expected maybe ...b6 and ...Ba6 now, after 10. Rd1. I feel Black stands well on both 3 and 4, and think those odds for a 6-0 whitewash ought to be lengthening.

[Charlie Linford]

I'd say the 6-0 whitewash is very long now; hard to believe that Gawain would have played into this as black without being 98% confident of holding it, especially after Howell beat Pert with the white side the other day. ½-½ there seems long odds on now. Howell seems in for a long bout of Spanish torture, will be interesting to see if he's up for the fight.

[Matthew Turner]

Not sure I agree with Charlie on that one. I can only see the top four boards, but I don't see why the chance of 4-0 to White has lengthened, looks like it is all to play for to me.

[Charlie Linford]

I'm solely basing that rather throwaway statement on the basis of Adams-Jones. The dual factors of a) having spent a lot of time studying these positions when I used to play the white side of the Dragon, and (more pertinently) b) knowing Gawain, I just don't believe he'd have gone into this sort of position unless he'd been through it thoroughly with a computer and was satisfied he could comfortably hold a draw. Maxim likes black on 3 & 4, and I'm happy to take his word for it, whilst I think 2/1 about Short looks a little generous now that we're 10 moves in, but overall I just don't see Mickey breaking Gawain down.

[Maxim Devereaux]

Okay, maybe my "Black stands well" on 3 and 4 may be a little generous, but I feel these two have equalised, and that's never a foregone conclusion as Black. That's my rationale for saying the odds have lengthened.

I'm a bit less sure of Gawain - this heavy piece manouvering with a slightly better structure is where Mickey usually really shines, so it will be very interesting to see how Gawain copes.

[Maxim Devereaux]

Adam looks to have decided to repeat, and prevent the 6-0. I'm not sure Stevie can decline, except with a rather unconvincing Qh3, when Qc7 must be fine for Black. Qg5 Qxg5 Bxg5 Nc5 must also favour Black.

[IM Jack Rudd]

The 6-0 is already dead anyway - Griffiths drew with Pert.

[Maxim Devereaux]

But I assume you did not manage to hold Hawkins then, Jack?

Wells-Houska is more interesting than I thought now. If White's threat to take the c-file with Rc1 is serious, then Black might be forced to take on b5 now, and that leaves Nd7 with no good squares (it might otherwise hope to eventually get into play with Nd7-b8-c6). Maybe Bxb5 ab Ne4, with ideas of simply Nd6, and if Rac1 then Qe7, and Black is okay.

[John Moore]

Any idea why we are down to four live boards again today.

[IM Jack Rudd]

I went down in fairly short order, yes.

[Maxim Devereaux]

David has played ...d5, but Qc8 looked interesting (if crude) also.

[Alexander Hardwick]

David has played ...d5, but Qc8 looked interesting (if crude) also.

And now ...b6. Perhaps planning a ...c5 pawn break (French-style) to undermine White's centre?