British Chess Championships 2011

[Matthew Turner]

I don't see many players who would be happy with a draw perhaps 5 out of twenty?

[Paul Cooksey]

I don't see many players who would be happy with a draw perhaps 5 out of twenty?

Well, my thinking is boards 4, 6, 7 and 9 are a similar case. White would probably consider a draw a decent way to end the tournament against a slightly stronger player. Black not playing for so much, or so much higher rated, that he has so much incentive to try to avoid it.

[Rob Thompson]

My predictions:

1 GM Adams, Michael 8.0 ENG 2715 IM Zhou, Yang-Fan 6.5 ENG 2444 WIN WHITE
2 GM Gordon, Stephen J 6.5 ENG 2533 GM Short, Nigel D 8.0 ENG 2687 WIN BLACK
3 GM Jones, Gawain C B 7.5 ENG 2606 GM Pert, Nicholas 7.0 ENG 2555 DRAW
4 GM Wells, Peter K 6.5 ENG 2489 IM Hawkins, Jonathan 7.5 ENG 2457 DRAW
5 GM Howell, David W L 6.5 ENG 2625 Adair, James R 6.5 ENG 2212 WIN WHITE
6 IM Rendle, Thomas E 6.5 ENG 2386 GM Gormally, Daniel W 6.5 ENG 2519 WIN BLACK
7 IM Bates, Richard A 6.5 ENG 2373 IM Palliser, Richard J D 6.5 ENG 2454 DRAW
8 GM Hebden, Mark L 6.0 ENG 2533 Khandelwal, Ankush 6.0 ENG 2211 WIN WHITE
9 GM Summerscale, Aaron P 6.0 ENG 2415 GM Williams, Simon K 6.0 ENG 2528 DRAW
10 GM Conquest, Stuart C 6.0 ENG 2519 IM Ansell, Simon T 6.0 ENG 2410 WIN WHITE

[Andrew Stone]

1 GM Adams, Michael 8.0 ENG 2715 IM Zhou, Yang-Fan 6.5 ENG 2444 WIN WHITE
2 GM Gordon, Stephen J 6.5 ENG 2533 GM Short, Nigel D 8.0 ENG 2687 WIN BLACK
3 GM Jones, Gawain C B 7.5 ENG 2606 GM Pert, Nicholas 7.0 ENG 2555 DRAW
4 GM Wells, Peter K 6.5 ENG 2489 IM Hawkins, Jonathan 7.5 ENG 2457 WIN WHITE
5 GM Howell, David W L 6.5 ENG 2625 Adair, James R 6.5 ENG 2212 WIN WHITE
6 IM Rendle, Thomas E 6.5 ENG 2386 GM Gormally, Daniel W 6.5 ENG 2519 WIN BLACK
7 IM Bates, Richard A 6.5 ENG 2373 IM Palliser, Richard J D 6.5 ENG 2454 WIN WHITE
8 GM Hebden, Mark L 6.0 ENG 2533 Khandelwal, Ankush 6.0 ENG 2211 WIN WHITE
9 GM Summerscale, Aaron P 6.0 ENG 2415 GM Williams, Simon K 6.0 ENG 2528 DRAW
10 GM Conquest, Stuart C 6.0 ENG 2519 IM Ansell, Simon T 6.0 ENG 2410 WIN WHITE

I see about 7 players who may be happy with a draw. 7.5 points will probably get about £600-£800 and 7 points unlikely to get anything.

[Paul Cooksey]

I see about 7 players who may be happy with a draw. 7.5 points will probably get about £600-£800 and 7 points unlikely to get anything.

Oh dear. Just checked the prize structure, and the difference between 7 and 7.5 may well be significant motivation. My predictions going horribly wrong already

[Mark Howitt]

Haven't got the mental energy to go through all of these- but I'm surprised so many people believe that Short will win with black. If I was being all geeky and mathsy, I'd guess the result of that match to be around 25% Short win 10% Gordon win 65% Draw. Hmm. Thought a bit about that and maybe a slightly higher Short percentage win but not much more. Gordon with white is pretty solid, although I'm sure Nigel will give it a good go.

I think Adams has had the 'rub of the green' a little bit in this tournament- 6 whites, only 6 GMs played... and the last round presenting an opponent he can beat with white- but I think he's due a bit of luck.

[Alex Holowczak]

I think Adams has had the 'rub of the green' a little bit in this tournament- 6 whites

He had 6 blacks when he won it last year as #1 seed, so that sounds like average luck to me.

The British gives the #1 seed white in round 1 in odd-numbered years, and black in round 1 in even-numbered years.

[Mark Howitt]

No it seems that I said "he has had the 'rub of the green' a little bit in this tournament" the key word there being this. I was actually refering to the 'luck' in this tournament, to make it clear.

[IM Jack Rudd]

The six whites thing doesn't really count as all that lucky when you realize that almost everyone at the top of the tournament has had six whites.

[Christopher Kreuzer]

I'm impressed that Andrew Ledger is still unbeaten. Hopefully that will continue tomorrow. Was wondering how often someone not among the leaders goes unbeaten in an 11-round tournament. Can't happen that often.

[IM Jack Rudd]

I'm impressed that Andrew Ledger is still unbeaten. Hopefully that will continue tomorrow. Was wondering how often someone not among the leaders goes unbeaten in an 11-round tournament. Can't happen that often.

I think you'd be surprised at how frequently it does happen, and how frequently the unbeaten player does nothing of note. (This is because the easiest way to go unbeaten in a tournament involves lots of draws against relatively weak players early on.)

[Christopher Kreuzer]

My predictions (can hardly do worse than I did in the last round):

1 GM Adams, Michael 8.0 ENG 2715 IM Zhou, Yang-Fan 6.5 ENG 2444 WIN WHITE
2 GM Gordon, Stephen J 6.5 ENG 2533 GM Short, Nigel D 8.0 ENG 2687 DRAW
3 GM Jones, Gawain C B 7.5 ENG 2606 GM Pert, Nicholas 7.0 ENG 2555 DRAW
4 GM Wells, Peter K 6.5 ENG 2489 IM Hawkins, Jonathan 7.5 ENG 2457 WIN BLACK
5 GM Howell, David W L 6.5 ENG 2625 Adair, James R 6.5 ENG 2212 DRAW
6 IM Rendle, Thomas E 6.5 ENG 2386 GM Gormally, Daniel W 6.5 ENG 2519 WIN WHITE
7 IM Bates, Richard A 6.5 ENG 2373 IM Palliser, Richard J D 6.5 ENG 2454 DRAW
8 GM Hebden, Mark L 6.0 ENG 2533 Khandelwal, Ankush 6.0 ENG 2211 DRAW
9 GM Summerscale, Aaron P 6.0 ENG 2415 GM Williams, Simon K 6.0 ENG 2528 DRAW
10 GM Conquest, Stuart C 6.0 ENG 2519 IM Ansell, Simon T 6.0 ENG 2410 DRAW

I suspect lots of early draws on the lower boards.

[Richard Bates]

My entry...

1 GM Pert, Nicholas 6.5 ENG 2555 GM Adams, Michael 7.5 ENG 2715 BLACK WIN
2 GM Short, Nigel D 7.0 ENG 2687 GM Wells, Peter K 6.5 ENG 2489 DRAW
3 IM Hawkins, Jonathan 6.5 ENG 2457 GM Howell, David W L 6.5 ENG 2625 DRAW
4 GM Summerscale, Aaron P 6.0 ENG 2415 GM Jones, Gawain C B 6.5 ENG 2606 DRAW
5 GM Gormally, Daniel W 6.0 ENG 2519 GM Gordon, Stephen J 6.0 ENG 2533 BLACK WIN
6 IM Houska, Jovanka 5.5 ENG 2418 IM Rendle, Thomas E 6.0 ENG 2386 DRAW
7 IM Buckley, Graeme N 5.5 ENG 2380 GM Hebden, Mark L 5.5 ENG 2533 BLACK WIN
8 IM Palliser, Richard J D 5.5 ENG 2454 FM Griffiths, Ryan Rhys 5.5 IRL 2301 BLACK WIN
9 IM Zhou, Yang-Fan 5.5 ENG 2444 FM Eggleston, David J 5.5 ENG 2318 DRAW
10 IM Hunt, Adam C 5.5 ENG 2436 Adair, James R 5.5 ENG 2212 WHITE WIN

Five draws, one White win, and four Black wins. Can we have a prize for getting the most predictions wrong?

well lets face it:
Board 1 defo no white win on that and Pert was going draw at all costs.

I'm reliably informed that Nick turned down a draw at some point. Perhaps surprising how often people like to predict players lacking the desire to play for the win on the forum. (of course doesn't stop people still piling in with criticism once the game is over with a draw agreed!)

[Richard Bates]

My predictions (can hardly do worse than I did in the last round):

1 GM Adams, Michael 8.0 ENG 2715 IM Zhou, Yang-Fan 6.5 ENG 2444 WIN WHITE
2 GM Gordon, Stephen J 6.5 ENG 2533 GM Short, Nigel D 8.0 ENG 2687 DRAW
3 GM Jones, Gawain C B 7.5 ENG 2606 GM Pert, Nicholas 7.0 ENG 2555 DRAW
4 GM Wells, Peter K 6.5 ENG 2489 IM Hawkins, Jonathan 7.5 ENG 2457 WIN BLACK
5 GM Howell, David W L 6.5 ENG 2625 Adair, James R 6.5 ENG 2212 DRAW
6 IM Rendle, Thomas E 6.5 ENG 2386 GM Gormally, Daniel W 6.5 ENG 2519 WIN WHITE
7 IM Bates, Richard A 6.5 ENG 2373 IM Palliser, Richard J D 6.5 ENG 2454 DRAW
8 GM Hebden, Mark L 6.0 ENG 2533 Khandelwal, Ankush 6.0 ENG 2211 DRAW
9 GM Summerscale, Aaron P 6.0 ENG 2415 GM Williams, Simon K 6.0 ENG 2528 DRAW
10 GM Conquest, Stuart C 6.0 ENG 2519 IM Ansell, Simon T 6.0 ENG 2410 DRAW

I suspect lots of early draws on the lower boards.

I can tell you're not really interested in winning this competition...

Is there a prize for the wooden spoon?

[Christopher Kreuzer]

Looking at the final round pairings, it is now possible to work out who will have played the strongest field. Just looking at the top 10 boards, or even at the GMs, you can see how many GMs each of the GMs will have played.

M. Adams - 6 GMs, 4 IMs, 1 other
N. Short - 8 GMs, 2 IMs, 1 FM
G. Jones - 6 GMs, 4 IMs, 1 FM
N. Pert - 3 GMs, 4 IMs, 1 FM, 3 other
D. Howell - 5 GMs, 5 IMs, 1 other
S. Gordon - 4 GMs, 6 IMs, 1 FM
D. Gormally - 2 GMs, 2 IMs, 1 FM, 6 other
P. Wells - 2 GMs, 5 IMs, 4 other
M. Hebden - 1 GM, 5 IMs, 5 other
S. Williams - 2 GMs, 3 IMs, 2 FMs, 4 other
S. Conquest - 3 GMs, 3 IMs, 2 FMs, 3 other
A. Summerscale - 6 GMs, 5 other

That last one is really surprising. Summerscale lost to Short, and other than that he avoided IMs and other GMs until round 7, when he has been served up 5 GMs in a row. Bit of a nasty finish there. The obvious thing to point out from higher up the tournament is that Short has had a tougher field in terms of titled players, with 8 GMs played (or to be played in round 11) compared to 6 for Adams. It seems that Adams and Short have both played all the GMs that made it up to the top boards, but outside those ones, the field faced has been a bit more mixed. I was also surprised that Hebden will only have played one GM, and that Gormally has only played 2 GMs and 2 IMs.

The standout among the non-GMs is, unsurprisingly, Hawkins:

J. Hawkins - 6 GMs, 1 IM, 1 FM, 3 other

Briefly looking at the rest of the listings, Rendle, Bates, Ansell, Buckley, R. Pert, and Hunt will have played 3 GMs each, while Susan Lalic started out with 4 GMs in a row. Also, even as far down as number 33 before round 11 (John Boyd) and number 40 (Jonathan Nelson), you find non-titled players who have played 3 GMs during this tournament.

So it seems GMs (admittedly of a wide variance in rating) were floating up and down the field, not just congregated at the top. Not sure if the above is what you would expect, or whether a different pattern would be more likely. Of course, you really need to look at ratings and rating performances, not titles, as you have GMs playing to a low rating and IMs playing to a high rating, which means it is a bit too simplistic to look at just titles, but I thought the above might be of some interest.